Tiger Research's $185.5K Bitcoin Target Faces ETF Outflow Contradiction

VADODARA, January 19, 2026 — Tiger Research, an Asian Web3 consulting firm, has projected a first-quarter Bitcoin price target of $185,500, according to its "Tiger Valuation Methodology (TVM)" report released today. This daily crypto analysis examines the report's bullish macro assumptions against contradictory on-chain data and spot ETF outflows, revealing a market structure fraught with liquidity gaps and potential order block traps.

Market Context & Background

Bitcoin's price action has been characterized by macro sensitivity since the 2024 halving, with historical cycles suggesting that post-halving years often see volatility driven by institutional adoption and regulatory shifts. The current environment mirrors the 2021 bull run's late-stage euphoria, but with added complexity from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have introduced new liquidity dynamics and gamma squeeze potentials. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest statements, interest rate cuts are anticipated, but market structure suggests that such macro tailwinds may be offset by structural weaknesses in ETF flows, as seen in recent liquidation events triggered by tariff announcements.

What Happened?

On January 19, 2026, Tiger Research published its TVM report, calculating a neutral Bitcoin value of $145,000 based on on-chain metrics and macroeconomic factors. The firm applied a +25% macro correction factor—citing U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and an increase in global M2 money supply—to arrive at the $185,500 target. However, the report concurrently noted that short-term momentum has been weakened by spot ETF outflows, a contradiction that on-chain forensic data confirms through declining exchange balances and weakened UTXO age bands. Tiger Research also highlighted the potential impact of the CLARITY Act, which could expand traditional finance participation, but market analysts question the timing given current regulatory uncertainties.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

On-chain analysis from the report indicates support at $84,000 and resistance at $98,000, with the MVRV-Z score having moved from an undervalued range to equilibrium. Market structure suggests that the current price of $92,448 is testing a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) between these levels, with volume profile data showing thin liquidity above $95,000. The 200-day moving average at $88,500 provides additional dynamic support, but a break below could trigger a liquidity grab toward the $84,000 order block. Bullish invalidation is set at $84,000; a sustained close below this level would negate the upward trajectory. Bearish invalidation is at $98,000; a breakout above this resistance could confirm the bullish target, but requires ETF inflow confirmation to avoid a false breakout.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional investors, the $185,500 target represents a high-conviction call that could drive capital allocation, but the contradiction with ETF outflows—where net flows have turned negative in recent weeks—suggests a disconnect between macro optimism and on-chain reality. Retail traders face increased volatility risk, as price action near key levels may trigger liquidations, similar to recent events where futures markets leaned short during dips. The CLARITY Act's potential expansion of traditional finance participation could alter market structure long-term, but immediate impacts are likely muted by regulatory delays.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter have expressed skepticism, with one noting, "Tiger's target seems overly reliant on macro factors, ignoring the daily ETF outflow data that shows weakening demand." Others highlight that the MVRV-Z score's move to equilibrium indicates reduced buying pressure, contradicting the bullish narrative. Sentiment remains cautious, as seen in the Fear & Greed Index, with many awaiting clearer signals from on-chain metrics like NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio).

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If ETF outflows reverse and the CLARITY Act passes swiftly, Bitcoin could break above the $98,000 resistance, targeting the $185,500 level by end-Q1. This scenario requires sustained on-chain accumulation, as indicated by rising HODLer balances and decreasing exchange supply. Market structure suggests a gamma squeeze above $100,000 could accelerate gains.

Bearish Case: Continued ETF outflows and a failure to hold $84,000 support could trigger a decline toward the $75,000 Fibonacci retracement level (61.8% of the 2025 rally). This would invalidate Tiger Research's target, with on-chain data indicating potential miner capitulation if hash rate volatility persists, as seen in recent shifts to AI mining.