Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Turns Positive as US Investors Buy Above $60k

VADODARA, February 6, 2026 — Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium has turned positive for the first time since mid-January, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. This daily crypto analysis reveals a critical shift in US institutional buying pressure as Bitcoin trades above $70,000. Market structure suggests this divergence from extreme fear sentiment may signal a local bottom.

Investigation: US Institutional Demand Resurfaces

Julio Moreno, a senior analyst at CryptoQuant, confirmed the shift in a post on X. According to Moreno, US investors are now accumulating Bitcoin as the price surpasses the $60,000 level. The Coinbase Premium measures the price difference for Bitcoin between US-based exchange Coinbase and global exchange Binance. A positive premium indicates higher buying pressure on Coinbase, typically associated with US institutional activity. This marks the first positive reading since mid-January, breaking a three-week streak of negative or neutral premiums.

Historical cycles suggest such reversals often precede short-term price rallies. The data directly contradicts the prevailing Extreme Fear sentiment, which currently scores 9/100 on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. This creates a classic bullish divergence where on-chain fundamentals improve despite negative market psychology. Analysts interpret this as a potential liquidity grab by sophisticated players.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Similar to the 2021 correction, Bitcoin has weathered a significant drawdown before institutional interest returned. In January 2026, the market faced a 52% crash to $60,000, testing key Fibonacci support levels. The prolonged negative Coinbase Premium during that period indicated net selling by US entities. Consequently, the current reversal mirrors patterns observed in Q4 2021, where institutional accumulation began near cycle lows despite retail panic.

Underlying this trend is the structural difference between Coinbase and Binance user bases. Coinbase caters heavily to US institutional and accredited investors, while Binance has a larger global retail presence. Therefore, a positive premium often signals that US money is flowing back into Bitcoin. This aligns with broader macro conditions, including potential Federal Reserve policy shifts outlined in recent Federal Reserve communications.

Related developments in this market phase include analysis of Bitcoin's 52% crash and coverage of BTC holding above $67,000 amid extreme fear.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Bitcoin currently trades at $70,982, up 6.26% in 24 hours. The price action has formed a clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $67,000 and $72,000. This FVG represents an imbalance where aggressive buying overwhelmed selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily charts sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum with room for upward movement.

Critical support resides at the $67,000 level, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2025 all-time high. This level has acted as a major order block throughout February. Resistance is evident near $75,000, where previous liquidation events occurred. Market structure suggests that holding above $67,000 is essential for maintaining the bullish invalidation scenario. A break below would likely trigger a retest of the $60,000 January lows.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This shift matters because the Coinbase Premium serves as a real-time proxy for US institutional sentiment. Positive premiums often correlate with periods of net inflow into US-regulated ETFs and custody solutions. , it indicates that sophisticated investors are accumulating at current levels, viewing the Extreme Fear sentiment as a buying opportunity. This behavior typically precedes broader market rallies as retail FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) eventually follows.

Institutional liquidity cycles suggest that sustained positive premiums can lead to a gamma squeeze in options markets. Market makers hedging their exposure may need to buy spot Bitcoin, creating upward pressure. This dynamic played out in Q1 2024 when similar conditions triggered a 25% rally over three weeks. The current market structure, with its clear FVG and order blocks, provides a technical foundation for such a move.

Expert Commentary

"The return of a positive Coinbase Premium is a significant on-chain signal. It shows that US institutions, often the smart money, are stepping back in after the January washout. When this metric flips amid extreme fear, it has historically marked local bottoms. However, traders must watch the $67,000 support; losing that level would invalidate this bullish thesis."

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Market structure suggests two primary scenarios based on the Coinbase Premium data and technical levels.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $75,000. A sustained break above this resistance, confirmed by rising volume, would indicate the bullish trend is resuming and could target $85,000.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $67,000. A daily close below this Fibonacci support would negate the positive premium signal, likely leading to a retest of $60,000 and potentially lower.

The 12-month institutional outlook hinges on whether this premium shift sustains. If US buying continues, it could catalyze a broader rally into 2027, similar to the institutional-driven cycle of 2023-2024. However, failure to hold support would extend the consolidation phase, delaying cycle progression.