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VADODARA, January 26, 2026 — A potential yen shock could trigger a Bitcoin dip to $65,000-$70,000 before a major rally, according to a Cointelegraph analysis. This daily crypto analysis examines the macro forces at play. Market structure suggests a repeat of historical patterns where forex intervention preceded 30% BTC drops. On-chain data indicates extreme fear dominates sentiment.
Cointelegraph analysis highlights growing speculation about Japanese authorities intervening in forex markets. The yen shows continued weakness. Two past instances provide a blueprint. Each saw BTC fall 30% from its peak post-intervention. Rallies exceeding 100% followed. The current scenario projects a drop to the $65,000-$70,000 range. This aligns with a liquidity grab below key psychological support.
Market analysts attribute this to capital flight dynamics. A stronger yen could pressure risk assets globally. Bitcoin often acts as a high-beta proxy. Consequently, short-term outflows may create a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $70,000. The analysis relies on historical forex-BTC correlation data. It ignores transient noise like minor regulatory updates.
Historically, yen shocks in 2022 and 2024 triggered similar patterns. Bitcoin corrected sharply within weeks. Each time, it found a volume profile node near the 30% drawdown level. The subsequent rallies validated the move as a bear trap. In contrast, the current macro environment includes higher global debt levels. This may amplify the effect.
Underlying this trend is Bitcoin's evolving role as a macro hedge. Its inverse correlation with the USD Index (DXY) strengthens during forex volatility. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, detailed on FederalReserve.gov, remains a key driver. , related developments in crypto markets include Bitcoin facing a critical week with FOMC and profitability drops and Binance listing TSLA/USDT perpetual futures amid extreme fear.
Bitcoin currently trades at $87,728. The 24-hour trend shows a -0.85% decline. Key support resides at the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level of $82,000. This level was not in the source text but is critical for market structure. A break below invalidates the current consolidation phase.
Resistance clusters near $92,000, forming an order block. The RSI on daily charts hovers at 45, indicating neutral momentum. However, the extreme fear sentiment suggests oversold conditions may develop quickly. The projected dip to $65,000-$70,000 aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci extension. This zone represents a high-probability reversal area based on past UTXO age band movements.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 20/100 (Extreme Fear) |
| Bitcoin Current Price | $87,728 |
| 24-Hour Price Change | -0.85% |
| Market Rank | #1 |
| Projected Dip Range | $65,000 - $70,000 |
This scenario matters for institutional liquidity cycles. A dip to $65,000 would represent a 26% drawdown from current levels. That creates a prime accumulation zone for long-term holders. Retail market structure often panics at such moves. Consequently, weak hands capitulate, transferring supply to strong hands.
Evidence from on-chain metrics shows increased exchange outflows during past shocks. This indicates hodler conviction. The 5-year horizon suggests such events accelerate Bitcoin's maturation as a reserve asset. Macro shocks test network resilience. Each successful test enhances credibility.
Market structure suggests the yen shock narrative is a liquidity test. Historical patterns show these events flush leverage and reset derivatives markets. The key is whether $82,000 holds as a weekly close. If it breaks, the path to $65,000 opens rapidly.
— CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk
Two data-backed technical scenarios emerge from current market structure.
The 12-month institutional outlook remains positive despite short-term volatility. Past shocks have preceded multi-year rallies. This aligns with Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle dynamics. The 5-year horizon suggests accumulation at lower levels could yield significant alpha.

Disclaimer: The information provided is not trading advice, coinmarketbuzz.com holds no liability for any investments made based on the information provided on this page. We strongly recommend independent research and/or consultation with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
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