CryptoQuant CEO: On-Chain Indicators Validate Long-Term Bitcoin Trends Amid Extreme Fear

VADODARA, February 2, 2026 — CryptoQuant CEO Ju Ki-young has reaffirmed the utility of Bitcoin on-chain indicators for long-term trend analysis, stating they accurately predict movements of approximately 600% despite missing short-term fluctuations. This daily crypto analysis comes as the market grapples with Extreme Fear sentiment, with Bitcoin trading at $79,046.

Investigation: On-Chain Data's Long-Term Signal Strength

According to a statement on X, Ju Ki-young detailed that Bitcoin on-chain metrics remain robust for forecasting major trends. He noted these indicators might overlook short-term price swings of around 30%, but they capture long-term directional moves of about 600%. Ju emphasized that on-chain analysis best serves long-term trend assessment, while technical analysis using market data refines short-term forecasts. This delineation provides a framework for institutional investors navigating volatile phases.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, on-chain metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and MVRV Z-Score have flagged major cycle tops and bottoms. Similar to the 2021 correction, current Extreme Fear readings often precede significant trend reversals when coupled with strong on-chain fundamentals. In contrast, short-term noise from macroeconomic events can distort price action. Underlying this trend, the separation of analysis tools reduces cognitive bias in portfolio strategy.

Related developments include US labor data delays exacerbating market fear and large Bitcoin transfers raising liquidity concerns.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Market structure suggests Bitcoin is testing a critical Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level near $78,500. The daily RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum with bearish bias. A key Order Block from January 2026 provides support at $75,000, aligning with the 200-day moving average. If broken, this creates a Fair Value Gap (FVG) targeting $72,000. Volume Profile shows high node concentration at $80,000, acting as immediate resistance. According to Ethereum.org's research on blockchain analytics, on-chain data integrity is paramount for such technical validation.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

On-chain data indicates institutional accumulation often occurs during Extreme Fear phases, as seen in Q4 2022. This creates a liquidity grab opportunity for patient capital. Retail sentiment, however, remains skewed by short-term volatility, leading to weak hands distribution. The decoupling of long-term on-chain signals from short-term price action reduces emotional trading errors. Consequently, portfolio managers can allocate based on UTXO age bands and holder concentration metrics.

Expert Commentary

"The 600% predictive power of on-chain metrics aligns with historical Bitcoin super-cycles. While short-term gamma squeezes can distort prices, fundamentals like miner revenue and exchange outflows provide a North Star for multi-quarter positioning," stated the CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk.

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Two data-backed technical scenarios emerge from current market structure. First, a bullish reversal requires reclaiming the $85,000 resistance zone to invalidate the downtrend. Second, a bearish continuation targets the $72,000 FVG if support fails.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $85,000. A daily close above this resistance confirms trend reversal and targets $90,000.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $75,000. A break below this Order Block support invalidates the current structure and opens $72,000.

The 12-month institutional outlook hinges on on-chain accumulation patterns. If holder growth persists despite price weakness, a 2027 cycle peak becomes probable. This aligns with the 5-year horizon where EIP-4844-like upgrades could enhance blockchain efficiency.