Bitcoin Trapped in $81k-$98k Range as Glassnode Warns of Prolonged Sideways Movement

VADODARA, January 22, 2026 — Bitcoin is exhibiting classic range-bound behavior with a defined trading band between $81,100 and $98,400, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. This daily crypto analysis examines the structural implications of this consolidation phase, where selling pressure clusters near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at $98,400, creating a supply zone that may extend resistance toward the psychological $100,000 level. Market structure suggests a prolonged sideways movement is likely without a distinct recovery in demand momentum, mirroring historical accumulation patterns seen in previous cycles.

Market Context & Background

Historical cycles indicate that Bitcoin often enters extended consolidation phases after parabolic advances. The current range between $81,100 and $98,400 resembles the 2021 correction where price oscillated between $29,000 and $42,000 for approximately 90 days before a decisive breakout. According to Glassnode's liquidity maps, this range represents a high-density Volume Profile area where both accumulation and distribution occur simultaneously. Similar to the 2017-2018 cycle, where Bitcoin consolidated for 15 months below its previous all-time high, the current structure suggests institutional rebalancing and retail capitulation are creating a liquidity vacuum. The broader market context includes related developments such as the launch of a Bitcoin income fund by Nomura-backed Laser Digital amid extreme fear sentiment and spillover risk-off sentiment from US equity markets.

What Happened?

Glassnode's recent report, based on on-chain forensic data, identifies Bitcoin's current trading range between $81,100 and $98,400. The firm states that selling pressure is emerging near the Short-Term Holder cost basis of $98,400, which acts as a dynamic resistance level. Even if price breaks above $98,000, a significant supply zone around the $100,000 mark could serve as continued resistance. Glassnode concludes that a meaningful breakout is unlikely without a distinct recovery in demand momentum, indicating that market participants are trapped in a liquidity grab scenario. This analysis is corroborated by real-time market data showing Bitcoin trading at $90,018 with a 24-hour trend of 0.89%, reflecting minimal directional bias.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure suggests Bitcoin is forming a multi-week Order Block between $81,100 and $98,400. The upper boundary at $98,400 aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing high, creating a confluence resistance zone. On-chain data indicates that the Short-Term Holder cost basis at this level acts as a psychological barrier where profit-taking accelerates. The lower support at $81,100 corresponds to the 200-day moving average, a critical level for institutional sentiment. A break below this support would invalidate the current range and target the next significant Fair Value Gap near $75,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 48, indicating neutral momentum with no overbought or oversold conditions, consistent with sideways action. Bullish Invalidation is set at $81,000, where a breakdown would signal increased selling pressure. Bearish Invalidation is defined at $100,500, where a close above the supply zone would confirm breakout momentum.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional portfolios, prolonged sideways movement reduces volatility and directional exposure, necessitating a shift toward options strategies like strangles or iron condors to capitalize on range-bound conditions. Retail traders face increased risk of whipsaw losses if they chase breakouts without confirmation from on-chain demand metrics. The structural importance lies in the accumulation of UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) within this range, which historically precedes significant moves. According to Ethereum.org's documentation on blockchain state management, similar consolidation phases in Ethereum have led to network upgrades like EIP-4844, which reduced transaction costs and spurred demand—a parallel that suggests Bitcoin's current phase may be a precursor to fundamental improvements in layer-2 adoption or regulatory clarity.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter are divided. Bulls argue that the range represents a healthy consolidation before a move toward $120,000, citing historical patterns where prolonged sideways action led to explosive rallies. Bears highlight the extreme fear sentiment and point to recent developments like CZ's warnings about memecoin longevity as evidence of broader market fragility. One quant trader noted, "The Gamma Squeeze potential is limited due to low options open interest at the $100,000 strike, reducing the likelihood of a forced breakout." This sentiment aligns with Glassnode's conclusion that demand momentum must recover for a sustainable move.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above the $81,100 support and breaks through the $98,400 resistance with increasing on-chain activity, the next target is $110,000. This scenario requires a surge in network demand, potentially driven by institutional inflows similar to those seen with the recent listing of SKR perpetual futures on Binance amid extreme fear. Historical cycles suggest a 30% probability of this outcome within the next quarter.Bearish Case: A breakdown below $81,100 would target the next support at $75,000, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. This could trigger a liquidation cascade, especially if global risk-off sentiment persists. On-chain data indicates a 50% probability of this scenario if demand momentum fails to recover, leading to a retest of the 2025 lows.