SEC Delays T. Rowe Price and Canary Crypto ETFs, Extending Regulatory Uncertainty

VADODARA, January 12, 2026 — The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed decisions on two cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), injecting fresh regulatory uncertainty into a market already grappling with fear-driven sentiment. According to the official SEC filing, the regulator will take up to an additional 45 days to review T. Rowe Price's active crypto ETF and Canary's PENGU spot ETF under the 19b-4 procedure for exchange rule changes. This daily crypto analysis examines the structural implications for Bitcoin price action and institutional adoption timelines.

Market Context & Background

This delay mirrors historical patterns where SEC scrutiny has acted as a liquidity grab, temporarily suppressing volatility while market participants reassess risk-adjusted returns. Underlying this trend is the broader regulatory framework outlined by the SEC's official guidance on digital asset securities, which emphasizes investor protection and market integrity. Consequently, each postponement recalibrates the fair value gap (FVG) for crypto assets, as institutional capital deployment hinges on regulatory clarity. The current environment parallels the 2021-2023 ETF approval cycles, where repeated delays created order blocks that later fueled bullish breakouts once resolutions were reached.

What Happened?

On January 12, 2026, the SEC announced the delay for T. Rowe Price's active crypto ETF and Canary's PENGU spot ETF, per the 19b-4 procedure detailed in the official SEC filing. Separately, the regulator initiated a public comment period for listing options on the Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto5 ETF, which tracks an index comprising Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). According to Cointelegraph, this dual-action approach suggests the SEC is methodically evaluating both product structures and derivative instruments, aligning with its mandate under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure suggests Bitcoin is testing a critical volume profile support at $90,726, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) acting as dynamic resistance near $92,500. The relative strength index (RSI) hovers at 45, indicating neutral momentum but leaning bearish amid the fear sentiment. A bullish invalidation level is set at $87,500, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent all-time high. Conversely, a bearish invalidation level rests at $93,200, where a breakout would confirm a gamma squeeze potential as options markets reprice volatility. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates reduced exchange inflows, suggesting hodler accumulation despite regulatory headwinds.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutions, these delays defer capital allocation decisions, potentially slowing the post-merge issuance impact on Ethereum's supply dynamics. Retail investors face amplified volatility as liquidity dries up in the order blocks near support zones. The SEC's parallel review of ETF options listings, as per its official regulatory framework, signals a holistic approach that could either streamline future approvals or introduce complex compliance layers. Historically, such regulatory pauses have preceded consolidation phases, where price action compresses before decisive moves.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter highlight the dichotomy between regulatory caution and technological innovation. Bulls argue that delays are procedural, not rejective, citing the SEC's incremental stance as a net positive for long-term legitimacy. Bears point to the fear index and recent events like the Polycule trading bot incident as evidence of systemic fragility. No official quotes from figures like Michael Saylor are available, but sentiment aggregates suggest a neutral-to-cautious outlook, with attention shifting to Bitcoin's technical resilience at current levels.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If the SEC resolves delays favorably, a liquidity influx could drive Bitcoin toward $95,000, with Ethereum benefiting from EIP-4844 blob fee reductions. This scenario assumes the fear index rebounds above 50 and on-chain metrics show sustained accumulation. Bearish Case: Extended delays or rejections may trigger a sell-off to $87,500, invalidating bullish structure and exacerbating the fear sentiment. Market structure suggests a breakdown below this level could target the 200-day EMA near $85,000, especially if macroeconomic factors like Fed rate hikes intensify.