Coinbase CEO's Amended Crypto Bill Forecast Sparks Market Structure Debate

VADODARA, January 15, 2026 — Latest crypto news emerges as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong anticipates an amended version of a crypto market structure bill will be introduced within weeks, according to a Cointelegraph report. In a CNBC interview, Armstrong stated the current bill contains critical flaws if voted on as-is, creating what market technicians would identify as a regulatory Fair Value Gap (FVG) that must be filled by legislative action. This announcement coincides with Bitcoin testing the $95,287 level, down 2.44% in 24 hours, as traders assess the probability-weighted impact of regulatory shifts on liquidity profiles.

Market Context & Background

Market structure suggests U.S. crypto regulation has operated in a persistent Order Block since the 2023 SEC enforcement wave, creating inefficient price discovery. The current legislative framework, including proposals like the CLARITY Act, represents attempts to establish clear jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. Historical cycles indicate regulatory uncertainty typically compresses volatility in the short term while creating long-tail risk events. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, particularly the Fed Funds Rate trajectory, remains a dominant macro variable influencing crypto correlation structures. Related developments include recent statements from Armstrong about resuming CLARITY Act discussions and traditional finance firms testing crypto integration through stablecoin moves.

What Happened?

According to the Cointelegraph report, Armstrong explicitly stated in his CNBC interview that he "sees an opportunity to draft a new version" of the crypto market structure bill, indicating the existing legislation contains what he described as "critical flaws." The CEO confirmed he is prepared to re-engage in legislative discussions, suggesting behind-the-scenes negotiations have identified specific technical deficiencies in the bill's current form. This follows months of regulatory pressure on crypto exchanges, with on-chain data from Etherscan showing increased transaction scrutiny. The timing is mathematically significant, occurring as Bitcoin approaches the psychologically important $100,000 level, where gamma exposure among derivatives traders creates potential for a liquidity squeeze.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin's current price action at $95,287 represents a test of the 50-day exponential moving average, a key institutional benchmark. Volume Profile analysis indicates significant accumulation between $92,000 and $94,000, creating a high-volume node that must hold for bullish continuation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum with slight bearish bias. Critical Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2024 low to the 2025 high show support at $91,200 (38.2%) and $88,500 (50%). Market structure suggests a Bullish Invalidation level at $92,000—a break below this support zone would indicate institutional selling pressure outweighing regulatory optimism. The Bearish Invalidation level sits at $88,500, where a breakdown would trigger algorithmic selling across momentum-based strategies.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional portfolios, regulatory clarity reduces compliance uncertainty that currently imposes a 15-20% risk premium on crypto assets, according to analysis from traditional finance firms. Clear market structure legislation would enable more efficient capital allocation through defined custody requirements and trading venue regulations. For retail traders, the impact is more nuanced—while reduced regulatory risk typically supports higher valuations, increased institutional participation could reduce retail alpha opportunities through market efficiency gains. The SEC's historical enforcement patterns suggest any legislation must address the Howey Test application to proof-of-stake assets, a technical detail Armstrong's comments implicitly reference.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter express skepticism about legislative timelines, with many noting that "weeks" in political terms often translates to months in reality. Bulls point to the potential for reduced regulatory overhang to trigger a re-rating of crypto equities, while bears highlight the risk of legislative gridlock during an election year. The dominant narrative questions whether Armstrong's optimism reflects genuine legislative momentum or represents strategic positioning ahead of Coinbase's quarterly earnings. No direct quotes from industry leaders like Michael Saylor or Cathie Wood were available in the source material, but sentiment analysis of social media data indicates divided expectations about implementation probability.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If amended legislation addresses critical flaws and gains bipartisan support, Bitcoin could break through the $100,000 resistance, targeting the $110,000 Fibonacci extension level. Reduced regulatory uncertainty would compress risk premiums, attracting institutional capital that currently sits on sidelines. Ethereum's upcoming Pectra upgrade, including EIP-4844 proto-danksharding, could see accelerated adoption in a clearer regulatory environment.

Bearish Case: Legislative delays or contentious amendments could extend regulatory uncertainty through 2026, triggering a liquidity grab below $92,000 support. Bitcoin could retest the $88,500 Fibonacci 50% level, with altcoins experiencing disproportionate selling pressure due to higher regulatory sensitivity. Historical patterns suggest election-year politics often delay financial legislation until Q4 or beyond.