CLARITY Act Progress Hinges on Stablecoin Interest Deal in US Crypto Regulation

VADODARA, January 16, 2026 — The markup for the U.S. crypto market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, has been postponed, but discussions could advance if a bipartisan agreement on stablecoin interest payments is reached, according to Eleanor Terrett, host of "Crypto in America." This development represents a critical inflection point for regulatory frameworks, with implications for Bitcoin price action and broader market liquidity. Our daily crypto analysis indicates that resolving stablecoin interest could serve as a catalyst for institutional adoption, though technical resistance levels remain formidable.

Market Context & Background

Market structure suggests that U.S. regulatory uncertainty has created a persistent Fair Value Gap (FVG) in crypto asset pricing, particularly for tokens with securities-like characteristics. The CLARITY Act, designed to clarify jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, mirrors previous legislative efforts like the 2023 FIT for the 21st Century Act, which stalled amid partisan divides. Underlying this trend is a fundamental tension: regulatory clarity typically precedes institutional capital inflows, but political gridlock delays implementation. Consequently, the current postponement reflects historical patterns where crypto legislation advances incrementally through compromise on narrower issues, such as stablecoin oversight. Related developments include Samsung's infrastructure investments and Uniswap's liquidity strategies, which highlight how market participants are positioning ahead of regulatory outcomes.

What Happened?

According to Terrett's reporting, based on conversations with industry insiders and U.S. Senate Banking Committee aides, the CLARITY Act markup delay does not signal terminal failure. Instead, focus has shifted to stablecoin interest payments as a potential bipartisan breakthrough. Previously, Coinbase raised concerns about provisions that could impose a de facto ban on tokenized stocks and weaken CFTC authority relative to the SEC. However, Terrett notes that some tokenization firms believe Coinbase misinterpreted the bill, and discussions are underway to either revise or remove these contentious elements. This aligns with data from the SEC.gov website, which shows ongoing rulemaking efforts for digital assets, indicating regulatory agencies are preparing for legislative changes. The key variable is whether lawmakers can agree on stablecoin interest frameworks, which would address yield generation mechanisms critical to DeFi protocols and centralized lending platforms.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin's current price of $95,708 sits within a consolidation range between $92,000 and $98,500, forming a potential Order Block that could dictate near-term direction. The $92,000 level corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2025 high, serving as a critical support zone. A breach below this would invalidate the bullish structure and target $88,000. Conversely, a breakout above $98,500 could trigger a Gamma Squeeze as options positions are forced to hedge. The RSI at 52 suggests neutral momentum, but volume profile analysis shows accumulation near current levels, indicating institutional interest amid regulatory developments. Bullish invalidation is set at $92,000, while bearish invalidation rests at $98,500.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutions, a stablecoin interest agreement would reduce regulatory tail risk, enabling clearer compliance frameworks for yield-bearing products. This could unlock billions in capital currently sidelined due to uncertainty, as seen in traditional finance where interest rate clarity drives bond market participation. For retail, it may legitimize DeFi platforms offering stablecoin yields, though increased scrutiny could also impose KYC/AML requirements that reduce anonymity. The broader impact hinges on whether the CLARITY Act's final form preserves innovation while mitigating systemic risk, a balance that has eluded regulators since the 2017 ICO boom.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter express cautious optimism, with some noting that "stablecoin interest is the low-hanging fruit for bipartisan crypto law." Others warn that without CFTC authority enhancements, the bill may fail to address derivatives market gaps. Notably, sentiment aligns with technical data: neutral Fear & Greed scores reflect wait-and-see attitudes until legislative text is finalized.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If a stablecoin deal is reached and CLARITY Act provisions are revised favorably, Bitcoin could break $98,500 resistance, targeting $105,000 as institutional inflows accelerate. This scenario assumes regulatory clarity reduces the risk premium embedded in crypto valuations.

Bearish Case: If talks stall or contentious provisions remain, regulatory uncertainty persists, likely pushing Bitcoin below $92,000 support toward $88,000. This would reflect a Liquidity Grab as weak hands exit amid delayed legislation.