Daily Crypto Analysis: Bitcoin Bottom Expected in 2026, $150K Target Set

• On-chain analyst Murphy projects Bitcoin bottom in 2026, followed by rally to $150,000
• 6.17 million BTC held at loss above $90,000; 7.46 million BTC profitable below $80,000
• Current market in "strong shakeout period" with extreme fear sentiment (25/100)
• Primary risk: Large-scale selling from profitable long-term holders

NEW YORK, December 22, 2025 — Bitcoin faces a critical inflection point according to on-chain analyst Murphy, who projects a 2026 bottom before a potential rally to $150,000. This daily crypto analysis examines the structural support zones and liquidation dynamics shaping Bitcoin's path. Market structure suggests the $80,000-$90,000 range represents the strongest support zone, with 1.87 million BTC requiring absorption to prevent sell-side pressure.

Market Context & Background

Bitcoin's current consolidation mirrors the 2021-2022 accumulation phase but with distinct on-chain characteristics. The four-year cycle theory remains dominant among institutional frameworks, though this cycle has deviated from historical patterns. Unlike previous corrections, Bitcoin has avoided the typical 50% crash despite long-term holder distribution. This indicates structural demand shifts possibly tied to institutional adoption through vehicles like spot Bitcoin ETFs. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory, particularly regarding the Fed Funds Rate, continues to influence macro uncertainty driving holder behavior.

Related developments in market structure include recent short liquidations exceeding $112 million and futures competitions testing liquidity conditions.

What Happened?

On-chain analyst Murphy identified precise supply dynamics following the October 11 liquidation event. Data shows 6.17 million BTC held at a loss above $90,000, creating potential resistance. Conversely, 7.46 million BTC sit in profitable positions below $80,000, representing latent sell pressure. Murphy states most top-sellers have exited post-liquidation, leaving remaining holders in accumulation phase. The critical observation: panic selling above $110,000 has subsided, suggesting a liquidity grab at higher levels has been completed. The analyst emphasizes the 1.87 million BTC in the $80,000-$90,000 range must be absorbed by new buying without becoming sell-side pressure for bullish continuation.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Current price: $88,763. The $80,000-$90,000 zone functions as a massive order block with historical volume profile significance. RSI readings hover near 45, indicating neutral momentum without oversold extremes. The 200-day moving average at $84,200 provides dynamic support. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists between $92,500 and $95,000 from the October decline. Market structure suggests this FVG must be filled for bullish confirmation.

Bullish invalidation level: $78,500. A weekly close below this Fibonacci support would break the order block and target $72,000. Bearish invalidation level: $96,000. Sustained trading above this level would invalidate the current distribution narrative and target $105,000 resistance.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutions, the $80,000-$90,000 support zone represents a critical accumulation area. Failure to hold triggers cascading liquidations. For retail, the extreme fear sentiment at 25/100 often precedes reversal opportunities. The divergence from typical 50% cycle crashes suggests underlying demand from entities like SEC-approved ETF issuers. Murphy's 2026 bottom projection aligns with historical cycle timing but introduces nuance: this shakeout period lacks the capitulation volume of previous cycles.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter highlight the volume profile anomaly. "The 1.87 million BTC in the key range is either fuel or fire," noted one quantitative trader. Bulls emphasize the reduced panic selling above $110,000 as structurally positive. Bears counter that long-term holder distribution at current levels suggests institutional profit-taking. The consensus: this is a liquidity consolidation phase testing both support conviction and resistance liquidity.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: New buying absorbs the 1.87 million BTC in the $80,000-$90,000 range. The FVG at $92,500-$95,000 fills. Long-term holder selling diminishes. Bitcoin establishes $85,000 as cycle low, rallies through $110,000 in 2026, and targets $150,000 in the next bull market. Invalidation: $78,500.

Bearish Case: Profitable long-term holders accelerate distribution. The $80,000 support fails. A gamma squeeze develops as options liquidity dries up. Bitcoin retests $72,000 (0.618 Fibonacci), potentially extending to $65,000. The 2026 bottom becomes deeper, delaying the $150,000 target to 2027-2028. Invalidation: $96,000.

FAQs

What is the strongest Bitcoin support zone according to Murphy?The $80,000-$90,000 range contains 1.87 million BTC that must be absorbed by buyers.

Why hasn't Bitcoin crashed 50% like previous cycles?On-chain data indicates structural demand from institutional accumulation, possibly through ETF channels.

What is the primary risk to Bitcoin's price?Large-scale selling from profitable long-term holders who control 7.46 million BTC below $80,000.

What does extreme fear sentiment (25/100) indicate?Historically, such readings often precede market reversals when combined with technical support.

When does Murphy project the Bitcoin bottom?2026, followed by a rally targeting $150,000 in the next bull market.

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.