Bitcoin Underperformance vs Stocks to Persist as Capital Shift from Gold Unlikely: Cowen

VADODARA, January 30, 2026 — Latest crypto news reveals a sobering institutional outlook from prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen. According to a recent video analysis, Bitcoin may continue underperforming the stock market as the current macro cycle concludes. Cowen specifically cautions against expecting immediate capital rotation from gold and silver into Bitcoin. This assessment arrives amid a market gripped by Extreme Fear, with Bitcoin trading at $82,761, down 6.10% in 24 hours.

Investigation: Cowen's Contrarian Capital Flow Thesis

IntoTheCryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen delivered a critical market update. He stated Bitcoin will likely show continued weakness against equities. Cowen explicitly dismissed the optimistic narrative linking precious metal rallies to Bitcoin inflows. His analysis, reported by Cointelegraph, suggests a decoupling thesis. Market structure currently validates this view. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has weakened significantly since Q4 2025.

On-chain data indicates no major capital migration from gold ETFs. According to Glassnode liquidity maps, Bitcoin's network value has stagnated. This contradicts bullish expectations of a safe-haven rotation. The Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet normalization further complicates the liquidity picture. Consequently, Cowen's stance challenges a core pillar of long-term Bitcoin valuation models.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, Bitcoin and gold exhibited sporadic correlation during risk-off events. The 2020-2021 cycle saw brief periods of synchronized movement. In contrast, the current phase shows a clear divergence. Precious metals have rallied on geopolitical tensions, while Bitcoin struggles. This breaks from the 2017 and 2021 bull market scripts where digital gold narratives gained traction.

Underlying this trend is a shift in institutional portfolio management. Pension funds and asset managers are treating crypto as a separate risk bucket. They are not directly swapping gold allocations for Bitcoin. The recent speculation around a potential Warsh Fed Chair has amplified liquidity fears, reinforcing defensive positioning across traditional and digital assets alike.

Related Market Developments

• Cardano's integration of a privacy-focused stablecoin highlights a sector-specific response to market stress.
• South Korea's financial regulator forming a digital strategy team signals long-term structural engagement despite short-term fear.
• Loopring facing exchange warnings the ongoing regulatory scrutiny within layer-2 ecosystems.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Bitcoin's price action confirms the bearish relative strength narrative. The BTC dominance chart shows a clear breakdown from its 200-day moving average. A critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists between $85,000 and $88,000. This zone acted as a previous order block and now serves as resistance. The daily RSI sits at 38, indicating weak momentum but not oversold extremes.

Volume profile analysis reveals thin liquidity below $80,000. A break of this level could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level from the 2025 low sits near $78,500, providing a potential secondary support. Market structure suggests the current consolidation is a distribution phase, not accumulation. This aligns with Cowen's warning of continued underperformance.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This analysis matters for portfolio construction over a 5-year horizon. It challenges the "digital gold" substitution narrative. If capital does not rotate from precious metals, Bitcoin's valuation must rely on other drivers. These include adoption metrics, regulatory clarity, and its own monetary policy. The persistent underperformance versus stocks could delay new institutional entry. They often wait for relative strength confirmation.

Real-world evidence supports Cowen's caution. ETF flow data from issuers like BlackRock shows simultaneous outflows from gold and Bitcoin products. This indicates a broad risk-off move, not a rotation. Retail market structure appears fragile, with exchange reserves rising slightly. This suggests selling pressure may not be exhausted. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance remains a primary macro overlay, influencing all risk assets concurrently.

Expert Commentary

"The data does not support a simple capital migration from gold to Bitcoin. We are observing correlated outflows from both asset classes during stress events, which points to a liquidity grab by the traditional financial system. The narrative of Bitcoin as a direct gold substitute requires a fundamental reassessment based on current capital flow patterns." – CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Market structure suggests two primary technical scenarios based on the $80,000 support level.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $88,000. A sustained break above this resistance, which aligns with the previous order block and the 50-day moving average, would invalidate the immediate underperformance thesis and suggest a retest of higher liquidity pools.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $78,500. A weekly close below this level, coinciding with the Fibonacci 0.618 support, would confirm a breakdown in market structure. This could accelerate the underperformance cycle and target deeper support zones near $72,000.

The 12-month institutional outlook remains cautious. If Cowen's thesis holds, Bitcoin may trade in a range, lagging equity rallies. Its performance will depend more on crypto-specific catalysts like ETF inflows, halving aftermath, and layer-2 adoption. The long-term horizon still favors network growth, but the path may involve extended periods of relative weakness, testing investor conviction.