Bitcoin Options Expiry: $1.88B Event Tests $90k Max Pain Amid Market Fear

VADODARA, January 9, 2026 — According to data from the crypto options exchange Deribit, Bitcoin options with a notional value of $1.88 billion are set to expire at 8:00 a.m. UTC today, presenting a critical liquidity event for the market. This daily crypto analysis examines the structural implications of the expiry, with a put/call ratio of 1.06 and a max pain price of $90,000, as Ethereum options worth $390 million also expire concurrently. Market structure suggests this event could trigger a gamma squeeze or liquidity grab, testing key support levels amid prevailing fear sentiment.

Market Context & Background

Options expiries have historically served as volatility catalysts in crypto markets, often aligning with technical inflection points. The current batch, with a notional value exceeding $2 billion across Bitcoin and Ethereum, mirrors the scale of events seen during the 2021 bull run, but occurs in a different macro regime. According to on-chain data, the put/call ratio of 1.06 indicates a slight skew toward puts (bearish bets), contrasting with the typical bullish bias in previous cycles. This divergence raises questions about whether market participants are hedging or positioning for downside, especially given the $90,000 max pain price—a level where the most options contracts expire worthless, potentially minimizing losses for market makers. Related developments include recent shifts in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and ongoing private talks on US market structure, which add regulatory uncertainty to the backdrop.

What Happened?

Deribit, the leading crypto options platform, reported that Bitcoin options worth $1.88 billion in notional value expire today at 8:00 a.m. UTC. The put/call ratio stands at 1.06, meaning puts slightly outnumber calls, with a max pain price of $90,000. Simultaneously, Ethereum options worth $390 million expire, featuring a put/call ratio of 0.89 and a max pain price of $3,100. These figures, sourced directly from Deribit's official data feeds, represent open interest that will be settled, potentially forcing market makers to adjust their delta-hedging positions. The timing coincides with Bitcoin trading at $91,033, just above the max pain level, creating a tight window for price action around this psychological threshold.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure suggests the $90,000 max pain price acts as a magnet for short-term price movement, with the current spot price of $91,033 hovering in a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from recent volatility. Key support levels include the 50-day moving average at $89,200 and a Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) near $88,500, which aligns with a Fibonacci 0.618 retracement from the last swing high. Resistance is observed at $92,500, a previous Order Block where liquidity was absorbed. The RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum, but a break below 40 could signal bearish acceleration. Bullish invalidation is set at $88,500; a close below this level would negate the current uptrend structure. Bearish invalidation lies at $92,500; a reclaim above this resistance would suggest strength and potential for a gamma squeeze upward. This analysis incorporates insights from Ethereum's official documentation on network upgrades, which often influence broader market sentiment.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This expiry event matters because it tests institutional versus retail positioning in a high-stakes liquidity environment. For institutions, the $1.88 billion notional value represents significant gamma exposure, where market makers may be forced to buy or sell spot Bitcoin to hedge their options books, potentially amplifying price swings. Retail traders, often influenced by sentiment, face the risk of stop-loss cascades if price breaches key levels like $90,000. The put/call ratio of 1.06 contradicts the typical bullish narrative, suggesting smart money may be preparing for downside or hedging against volatility, as seen in traditional finance options markets. On-chain data indicates that such events can lead to liquidity grabs, where price is drawn to areas of high open interest to fill orders, impacting short-term market efficiency.

Community Sentiment

Industry observers on X/Twitter are divided. Bulls highlight the max pain price as a support zone, with one analyst noting, "The $90k level has held in past expiries, suggesting market makers defend it." Bears point to the fear sentiment and put skew, arguing it signals caution ahead of potential macroeconomic shifts, such as Federal Reserve policy changes. Market analysts synthesize this as a wait-and-see approach, with many referencing the recent BlackRock-linked withdrawals as evidence of institutional repositioning. No direct quotes from figures like Michael Saylor are available, but sentiment leans neutral-to-cautious, reflecting the data's ambiguity.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above $90,000 post-expiry and reclaims $92,500, a gamma squeeze could propel price toward $95,000, targeting the next resistance cluster. This scenario assumes market makers buy back hedges and fear sentiment abates, possibly fueled by positive regulatory developments like those hinted in the SEC capital formation report.

Bearish Case: A break below $88,500 invalidates bullish structure, likely triggering a sell-off toward $85,000, where a major Fair Value Gap exists. This would align with the put/call ratio's bearish skew and fear sentiment, potentially exacerbated by broader market downturns or unexpected regulatory news.