MSCI Postpones Crypto Treasury Exclusion, Index Review Sparks Market Volatility

VADODARA, January 6, 2026 — Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) has postponed a plan to exclude companies holding digital assets in their treasuries from its indexes, according to an official announcement on January 6. This daily crypto analysis examines the implications for market structure, with Bitcoin trading at $93,182 amid a Fear sentiment score of 44/100. Market structure suggests the delay prevents an immediate liquidity grab but introduces longer-term regulatory scrutiny on non-operating entities.

Market Context & Background

Similar to the 2021 correction when index rebalancing triggered volatility in tech stocks, MSCI's move mirrors historical patterns where classification changes impact asset flows. According to MSCI's statement, the index provider aims to maintain consistency with measuring operating companies, excluding investment vehicles. This echoes the SEC's guidance on investment company definitions, which distinguishes between operating businesses and funds. The postponement follows increased institutional adoption of digital assets, with firms like MicroStrategy holding Bitcoin as treasury reserves. Volume profile data indicates that previous index exclusions have created Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) in affected stocks, often leading to short-term price dislocations.

What Happened?

On January 6, MSCI announced it is postponing a proposal to remove digital asset treasury (DAT) companies during its regular index review in February. According to the official statement, MSCI will instead launch a broader consultation process on non-operating companies in general. The firm noted that some have suggested DATs may be more focused on investment activities than core business operations. MSCI explained that distinguishing between companies holding non-operating assets as part of their core business and those that are essentially investment firms requires further research and consultation with market participants. This decision, as reported by Coinness, aims to align indexes with their fundamental purpose of measuring operating performance.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin's price action at $93,182 reflects a -1.03% 24-hour decline, with RSI hovering near 50, indicating neutral momentum. Market structure suggests key support at the $90,000 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent all-time high, which serves as the Bullish Invalidation level. Resistance is observed at $95,000, an order block from previous consolidation. On-chain data indicates reduced exchange inflows, suggesting hodler accumulation despite fear sentiment. The Bearish Invalidation level is set at $88,000, where a break could trigger a gamma squeeze in options markets. Historical cycles suggest that index-related news often precedes volatility spikes, similar to the 2021 Tesla Bitcoin purchase announcement.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutions, MSCI's postponement reduces immediate sell pressure on DAT stocks, preventing a forced liquidation event that could have exceeded $15 billion in market cap. Retail impact is muted, but broader consultation on non-operating companies may affect crypto-linked equities like Coinbase or Marathon Digital. According to on-chain data, this aligns with regulatory trends emphasizing transparency, as seen in the SEC's approach to ETF approvals. The delay allows firms to adjust treasury strategies, potentially stabilizing UTXO age distributions. Market analysts note that similar index reviews in traditional finance have led to long-term reclassifications impacting sector weights.

Community Sentiment

Industry leaders on X/Twitter express relief but caution. Bulls highlight the avoidance of a liquidity grab, while skeptics point to ongoing regulatory ambiguity. One analyst stated, "MSCI's move is a temporary reprieve, but the consultation signals deeper scrutiny on crypto treasuries as non-operating assets." This sentiment reflects broader market fear, with many referencing potential liquidation risks that were averted. Others link it to recent volatility, as discussed in Bitcoin price action reports.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If consultation concludes favorably for DATs, Bitcoin could rally to $100,000, supported by institutional inflows and reduced regulatory overhang. Market structure suggests holding above $90,000 invalidates bearish scenarios, with EIP-4844 upgrades on Ethereum potentially boosting altcoin sentiment. Historical patterns indicate post-consultation clarity often drives index inclusion flows.

Bearish Case: If MSCI ultimately excludes DATs, Bitcoin may drop to $85,000, triggering a sell-off in crypto equities. A break below $88,000 would confirm bearish invalidation, exacerbating fear sentiment and leading to a volume profile shift toward distribution. This could mirror the 2022 downturn when regulatory actions compressed valuations.