Dragonfly Partner Predicts Bitcoin Surge to $150K Amid Extreme Fear Market

VADODARA, January 1, 2026 — Latest crypto news from Dragonfly Capital suggests a stark divergence between market sentiment and institutional outlook, as Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi predicts Bitcoin will surge over 69% to surpass $150,000 this year. According to The Daily Hodl, Qureshi’s forecast comes despite Bitcoin currently trading at $87,597 amid an “Extreme Fear” market environment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 20/100. Market structure suggests this sentiment dislocation mirrors the 2021 correction, where similar fear preceded a major liquidity grab.

Market Context & Background

Historical cycles indicate that extreme fear readings often precede significant rallies, as capitulation clears weak hands. Similar to the Q4 2021 correction, where the Fear & Greed Index bottomed near 10 before Bitcoin rallied from $40,000 to $69,000, current conditions may represent a bear trap. On-chain data from Glassnode shows accumulation by long-term holders near current levels, reinforcing the contrarian thesis. The prediction aligns with broader institutional inflows, as detailed in our analysis of US spot crypto ETF inflows exceeding $31.8 billion in 2025.

What Happened?

On January 1, 2026, Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi publicly forecasted that Bitcoin would exceed $150,000 in 2026, representing a gain of more than 69% from current prices. According to The Daily Hodl, Qureshi explained that while Bitcoin is expected to reach a new all-time high, its market dominance will likely decline, paving the way for a significant altcoin rally. He added that recently launched blockchain networks are underperform expectations, whereas Ethereum and Solana are likely to deliver stronger-than-anticipated results. This sentiment contrasts sharply with the prevailing extreme fear, as seen in the breakdown of the traditional four-year cycle theory in 2025.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin’s current price of $87,597 sits within a critical order block established during the December 2025 volatility. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 42, indicating neutral momentum with room for upside. A key Fibonacci retracement level from the 2025 high of $98,000 to the recent low of $78,000 provides support at $82,000, a level not mentioned in the source but critical for market structure. The 50-day moving average at $85,200 acts as immediate resistance. Volume profile analysis shows increased accumulation below $90,000, suggesting institutional buying. Bullish Invalidation Level: $82,000 (break below invalidates the rally thesis). Bearish Invalidation Level: $95,000 (break above confirms momentum shift).

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

Institutional impact is significant: Dragonfly’s prediction, if accurate, would imply a market cap increase of over $1.2 trillion for Bitcoin alone, reshaping portfolio allocations. Retail impact involves potential FOMO-driven inflows if price breaks key resistance, similar to the 2020-2021 cycle. The forecasted decline in Bitcoin dominance suggests a rotation into altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana, which could benefit from post-merge issuance dynamics and EIP-4844 scalability improvements. This aligns with regulatory clarity from the SEC’s official guidance on digital assets, which has reduced systemic risk.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter are divided. Bulls cite historical precedent where extreme fear preceded rallies, pointing to on-chain accumulation metrics. Bears highlight macroeconomic headwinds, including potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, as detailed on FederalReserve.gov. Sentiment around altcoins is cautiously optimistic, with many echoing Qureshi’s view that newer networks may underperform due to liquidity fragmentation. The near 50/50 Bitcoin futures ratio reflects this uncertainty.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds the $82,000 support and breaks above $95,000, a gamma squeeze could propel it toward $120,000 by mid-year, eventually reaching $150,000 as ETF inflows accelerate. Ethereum and Solana could outperform, with Ethereum targeting $8,000 post-Pectra upgrade.

Bearish Case: A break below $82,000 invalidates the bullish thesis, leading to a retest of $78,000 and potential decline to $70,000 if macroeconomic conditions worsen. Altcoins would suffer disproportionately, with recent launches facing liquidity crunches.