Crypto Market's 'Trump Moment' Ends: Structural Transition Begins as Institutions Dominate

VADODARA, January 18, 2026 — The cryptocurrency market's "Trump moment" has conclusively ended, marking the start of a structural transition driven by institutional capital and a refocus on fundamentals, according to Animoca Brands co-founder Yat Siu. In an interview with CoinDesk, Siu stated that while former U.S. President Donald Trump was viewed as a market catalyst last year, the failure of this sentiment to translate into substantive policy has forced investors to pivot toward core value propositions. This latest crypto news signals a departure from politically-driven hype cycles, with on-chain data indicating a liquidity grab toward assets with proven utility and institutional backing.

Market Context & Background

Market structure suggests this transition mirrors the 2021-2022 cycle, where post-bull market euphoria gave way to a focus on fundamentals like Ethereum's merge to proof-of-stake. Historical cycles indicate that when political narratives fail to materialize into policy—similar to the regulatory uncertainty following the 2021 infrastructure bill—capital reallocates toward assets with clear use cases. According to Glassnode liquidity maps, the current phase resembles the 2018-2019 accumulation period, where institutional entry preceded Bitcoin's establishment as a digital gold analogue. The convergence of cryptocurrency and AI, noted by Siu, parallels the 2020 DeFi summer, where technological innovation drove the next market phase. Related developments include the final closure of the Ripple lawsuit, which reduces political overhangs, and Defiance's delisting of an ETH leverage ETF, reflecting shifting liquidity dynamics.

What Happened?

In a statement to investors via CoinDesk, Yat Siu explicitly declared the end of the "Trump moment," a period where market expectations were fueled by political sentiment rather than economic reality. He emphasized that institutional capital inflows are fundamentally altering market character, with Bitcoin solidifying its role as a reserve asset akin to gold, while altcoins face heightened scrutiny over real-world utility. Siu added that the fusion of crypto and AI will redefine financial systems, potentially through gamified finance for future generations. According to the official SEC filing on Bitcoin ETFs, institutional holdings have increased by 15% quarter-over-quarter, supporting Siu's assertion of a structural shift.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure suggests Bitcoin is testing a critical order block near $95,424, with volume profile indicating weak resistance above $100,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 reflects neutral momentum, while the 50-day moving average at $91,500 provides dynamic support. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists between $92,000 and $94,000, which may act as a liquidity grab zone. Bullish invalidation is set at $92,000—a breach would undermine the reserve asset thesis and signal a deeper correction toward the 200-day MA at $85,000. Bearish invalidation lies at $102,000, where a breakout could trigger a gamma squeeze toward $107,000, as noted in recent technical analysis. Altcoins, particularly those lacking utility, face resistance at Fibonacci retracement levels, with many trading below their 2024 highs.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This structural transition matters because it redefines risk allocation for the 5-year horizon. Institutionally, per the FederalReserve.gov monetary policy reports, rising interest rates favor assets with store-of-value characteristics, bolstering Bitcoin's gold-like thesis. Retail investors must now prioritize projects with verifiable on-chain activity over speculative narratives. The shift mirrors the post-2017 ICO bust, where utility-driven tokens like Ethereum survived while hype-based projects faded. Market analysts suggest that without real-world use cases—such as those enabled by EIP-4844 for scalability—many altcoins may face liquidity drains similar to the 2022 bear market.

Community Sentiment

On X/Twitter, industry leaders echo Siu's emphasis on fundamentals. One quant analyst posted, "The Trump trade was a liquidity mirage; on-chain data now shows capital moving to Bitcoin and AI-integrated L2s." Another noted, "Gamified finance could unlock mass adoption, but only if tokenomics are sustainable." Bulls highlight institutional inflows as a bullish signal, while bears warn of altcoin underperformance if utility isn't proven. Sentiment aligns with the neutral Fear & Greed score, indicating cautious optimism.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds $92,000 and institutional inflows accelerate, it could target $107,000 by Q2 2026, driven by its reserve asset status. Altcoins with proven AI or DeFi utility may outperform, leveraging the convergence trend. Market structure suggests a breakout above $102,000 would invalidate bearish scenarios.Bearish Case: A break below $92,000 could trigger a sell-off toward $85,000, as retail disillusionment meets macro headwinds. Altcoins without utility may crash 40-60%, reminiscent of the 2018 purge. The potential stablecoin regulatory threats could exacerbate liquidity crunches.