Bitcoin Price Surge to $97,500 Faces Skepticism as Long-Term Holders Hold Firm

VADODARA, January 15, 2026 — Bitcoin's price has surged to $97,500, breaking through the $94,200 resistance, yet on-chain data reveals a critical divergence: long-term holders are not selling. This daily crypto analysis examines the implications of a low Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric at 0.53, as reported by CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Alemán, suggesting the rally may be driven by short-term speculation rather than fundamental conviction.

Market Context & Background

Historical cycles indicate that Bitcoin bull markets often see increased selling from long-term holders as prices approach all-time highs. For instance, during the 2021 peak, VDD spiked above 1.5, signaling profit-taking by veteran investors. The current scenario, with VDD at 0.53, contradicts this pattern, raising questions about market maturity and potential liquidity traps. Market structure suggests this could mirror early-phase accumulation, but skepticism is warranted given the elevated greed sentiment. Related developments include the Bank of Korea's rate hold at 2.50%, which may provide macro stability, and the Coinbase withdrawal threatening crypto market bill passage, adding regulatory uncertainty.

What Happened?

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's price broke through $94,200 to reach $97,500, yet the VDD metric remains low at 0.53. Carmelo Alemán noted that this level is significantly below previous bull markets, where VDD often exceeded 1.0. VDD measures the age of coins being moved, with low values indicating trading activity is concentrated among short-term holders. Alemán explained that as long as VDD stays low, the upward trend can be considered a healthy bull phase, but this analysis assumes no external shocks. The data, sourced from Coinness.com, highlights a potential disconnect between price action and holder behavior.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Price action shows Bitcoin testing the $97,500 level, with immediate resistance near the psychological $100,000 mark. Support is established at $94,200, which now acts as a key order block. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists between $92,000 and $93,500, which may attract liquidity if price retraces. Volume profile analysis indicates thin trading above $96,000, raising concerns about a gamma squeeze if derivatives activity increases. Bullish invalidation is set at $94,200; a break below could signal a liquidity grab targeting lower supports. Bearish invalidation is at $100,000, where a sustained break could trigger FOMO-driven rallies.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This development matters because it challenges the narrative of a broad-based rally. Institutional impact is limited if long-term holders, often large entities, are not participating in selling, potentially reducing sell-side pressure. However, retail impact could be significant if short-term traders drive volatility, leading to sharp corrections. The low VDD suggests underlying strength, but it also raises red flags about market depth and the sustainability of gains without broader holder engagement. According to Ethereum.org, similar metrics in other assets have preceded consolidations, emphasizing the need for cross-chain analysis.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter are divided. Bulls argue that low VDD indicates strong conviction, with one stating, "Hodler discipline is keeping supply tight." Bears counter that this could signal a lack of new capital inflows, with skepticism about whether short-term momentum can sustain prices. The overall sentiment leans cautious, reflecting the mixed data signals.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If VDD remains low and Bitcoin holds above $94,200, a breakout above $100,000 is plausible, targeting $105,000 based on Fibonacci extensions. This scenario assumes continued institutional interest, as seen in historical cycles.

Bearish Case: A spike in VDD or a break below $94,200 could trigger a correction to $90,000 or lower, filling the FVG. This would indicate long-term holders are finally selling, potentially leading to a prolonged downtrend.