Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Hits 0.65, Signaling Potential $40K Bear Scenario

VADODARA, February 10, 2026 — Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple has collapsed to 0.65. This marks its lowest reading in four years. According to on-chain data from Cointelegraph, the metric now signals a potential retest of $40,000. Market structure suggests a repeat of the 2022 bear cycle. This daily crypto analysis examines the technical breakdown.

Investigation: The Mayer Multiple Breakdown

Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple dropped to 0.65 this week. The index compares Bitcoin's current price to its 200-day moving average. A reading below 2.4 typically indicates a buy signal. However, 0.65 represents extreme undervaluation. Historical data from Glassnode shows this level last appeared in early 2022. That period preceded a 60% drawdown. The current price sits at $68,958. This creates a Fair Value Gap (FVG) of nearly 50% to the 200-day average. Market analysts warn of a liquidity grab if support fails.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, a Mayer Multiple between 0.6 and 0.8 signals a long-term buying opportunity. In contrast, the 2022 bear market saw the metric plunge to 0.5. Bitcoin subsequently crashed to $15,500. Underlying this trend is institutional behavior. Recent large-scale accumulation at discounts mirrors 2022 bottom formations. , the current Extreme Fear sentiment (Score: 9/100) aligns with past capitulation events. Consequently, the market faces a critical decision point.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Bitcoin's price action shows weakening support at $68,000. The 200-day moving average acts as dynamic resistance near $85,000. RSI readings hover at 35, indicating oversold conditions. However, volume profile analysis reveals thin liquidity below $65,000. This creates a potential vacuum zone. A break of the Fibonacci 0.618 support at $67,200 would confirm bearish momentum. Market structure suggests a target of $40,000 aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement from the 2021 peak. UTXO age bands show increased hodling, but selling pressure persists.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This Mayer Multiple reading matters for portfolio risk management. A drop to $40,000 would represent a 42% decline from current levels. Institutional liquidity cycles suggest such moves trigger margin calls. Retail market structure often fractures at these thresholds. Evidence from recent whale transfers indicates preparation for volatility. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, detailed on FederalReserve.gov, further influences macro liquidity. Consequently, this technical signal carries weight beyond charts.

Expert Commentary

"The Mayer Multiple at 0.65 is a statistical anomaly. It historically precedes major buying opportunities or severe drawdowns. Current on-chain data points to the latter without a catalyst shift. Watch the $68,000 order block closely."

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Market structure suggests two primary scenarios. First, support holds at $68,000, triggering a mean reversion rally. Second, breakdown occurs, targeting $40,000. Historical cycles indicate the 12-month outlook depends on macroeconomic factors.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $85,000. A break above the 200-day moving average invalidates the bear scenario and confirms trend reversal.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $68,000. A sustained break below this support confirms the downtrend toward $40,000.

The 5-year horizon remains positive due to Bitcoin's fixed supply. However, short-term pain likely precedes long-term gain. Institutional accumulation, as seen in recent ETH positions, may cushion falls.