XRP Price Holds at $1.86 as $1.85 Support Faces January Escrow Unlock Test

VADODARA, December 30, 2025 — XRP trades at $1.86, clinging to the $1.85 support level that will determine its short-term trajectory. This daily crypto analysis examines the technical setup as 1 billion XRP tokens prepare for escrow release in January, creating potential downward pressure on an asset already testing critical support.

Market Context & Background

XRP has traded within a descending channel since its September 2025 high of $2.45. The current price action mirrors the 2023 consolidation pattern where XRP established support at $0.50 before a 150% rally. Market structure suggests institutional accumulation occurred between $1.60 and $1.80, creating a significant order block. The broader cryptocurrency market faces extreme fear sentiment with a score of 23/100, creating conditions for potential liquidity grabs in both directions.

Related developments across the market include Bitcoin's failure to reach $100,000 predictions and long-term Bitcoin holders accumulating during extreme fear. These patterns suggest sophisticated capital positioning for volatility events.

What Happened?

According to analysis from Watcher.Guru, XRP's immediate direction hinges on defending the $1.85 support level. The asset faces a fundamental catalyst with 1 billion XRP scheduled for escrow release in January 2026. This represents approximately 0.18% of circulating supply. Historical data indicates previous escrow releases have created short-term selling pressure averaging 3-5% declines within two weeks of unlock events.

The current price of $1.86 represents a 0.10% 24-hour change. XRP maintains its position as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. On-chain data indicates reduced exchange inflows compared to previous unlock periods, suggesting potential hodler accumulation despite the bearish technical setup.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure reveals a clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $1.77 and $1.85. This zone represents inefficient price discovery from the November decline. The $1.85 level coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the September high to October low, adding confluence to its significance.

Volume profile shows declining participation below $2.00, indicating weak conviction. The 50-day moving average at $1.92 acts as dynamic resistance. RSI sits at 42, neither oversold nor overbought, suggesting room for movement in either direction.

Bullish invalidation occurs at $1.85. A daily close below this level invalidates the current support structure. Bearish invalidation occurs at $2.08, where the asset would break the descending trendline resistance established in September.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional investors, the $1.85 level represents a liquidity zone where stop-loss orders cluster. A break below triggers algorithmic selling across derivatives platforms. Retail traders face gamma squeeze risk if volatility expands during the escrow release period.

The January unlock tests Ripple's treasury management strategy. Previous releases have been partially re-locked to mitigate market impact, but the psychological burden remains. According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, proper disclosure of token release schedules remains a regulatory focus for all digital asset issuers.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter express divided views. Bulls point to historical patterns where XRP rallied post-unlock after initial selling pressure subsided. One trader noted, "The $1.60 to $1.80 zone saw massive accumulation. This isn't weak hands selling." Bears highlight the extreme fear sentiment across crypto markets, suggesting the unlock could amplify negative momentum. "The technical setup favors sellers until $2.08 breaks," another analyst stated.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: XRP holds $1.85 support through January. Trading volume recovers around $2.00. A break above $2.08 resistance invalidates the bearish structure. This scenario targets $2.30 initially, then $2.45 to fill the September FVG. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension suggests potential toward $2.80 if momentum sustains.

Bearish Case: XRP breaks $1.85 before January. Next support at $1.77 fails. Strong selling pressure pushes price to $1.60, testing the October low. The escrow unlock amplifies negative cycles through technical and psychological burdens. This scenario could see XRP retest $1.40 if market sentiment deteriorates further.

FAQs

What is the XRP escrow unlock in January 2026?Ripple's escrow system releases 1 billion XRP monthly, with portions often re-locked. The January release represents potential selling pressure if released tokens enter circulation.

Why is $1.85 important for XRP?This level represents technical support based on Fibonacci retracement, previous price action, and current market structure. A break below invalidates bullish scenarios.

How does extreme fear sentiment affect XRP?Extreme fear (23/100) indicates panic selling potential but also creates conditions for contrarian buying at support levels.

What are the key resistance levels for XRP?Immediate resistance at $1.92 (50-day MA), then $2.00 psychological level, and $2.08 trendline resistance.

How does XRP's unlock compare to Ethereum's EIP-4844?While different mechanisms, both represent supply-side events. EIP-4844 reduced Ethereum transaction costs through proto-danksharding, while XRP's unlock increases circulating supply temporarily.

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.