Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Shift to Net Buyers, Add 33K BTC Amid Extreme Fear

VADODARA, December 30, 2025 — Bitcoin's long-term holders have executed a strategic pivot. According to on-chain analytics firm checkonchain, addresses holding BTC for at least 155 days have net-purchased approximately 33,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This marks their first net accumulation phase since July. The shift occurs as global crypto sentiment registers "Extreme Fear" with a score of 23/100. This latest crypto news reveals a fundamental change in market participant behavior.

Market Context & Background

This cohort had been the market's dominant selling force throughout 2025. They offloaded more than one million BTC as Bitcoin's price declined roughly 36% since October. The reversal from net seller to net buyer represents a critical inflection point. Historical patterns indicate long-term holder accumulation often precedes significant price stabilization or recovery phases. The current market structure suggests a potential liquidity grab is underway, with smart money positioning against prevailing retail sentiment.

Related developments in this extreme fear environment include Binance listing new perpetual futures and Russia proposing harsh penalties for illegal mining.

What Happened?

Checkonchain data confirms the behavioral shift. The firm's analysis, cited by CoinDesk, shows addresses meeting the 155-day holding threshold have transitioned to accumulation. The 33,000 BTC purchase represents approximately $2.9 billion at current prices. This buying pressure may be offsetting persistent selling from other cohorts. The analytics firm notes that since reclassification to long-term holder status requires 155 days, buying activity from the last six months is now influencing this metric.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin currently trades at $87,824, showing minimal 24-hour movement at 0.32%. The price action remains constrained within a defined range. Market structure suggests key support at the $85,000 psychological level, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. Resistance sits firmly at $92,000, a level that has rejected multiple advance attempts since November. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 45, indicating neutral momentum with slight bearish bias.

A critical Fibonacci support level exists at $82,000 (61.8% retracement from the 2024 high). This represents a major order block that must hold for bullish structure to remain intact. The current volume profile shows diminished activity, typical of extreme fear conditions where retail participation retreats.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional investors, this signals potential bottom formation. Long-term holders represent the most conviction-driven cohort. Their accumulation during extreme fear suggests they perceive current prices as undervalued relative to long-term fair value. This behavior often precedes institutional capital deployment. For retail traders, the divergence between sentiment and on-chain activity creates a classic contrarian signal. The market is pricing in maximum pessimism while the most experienced participants are accumulating.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter highlight the significance. "Long-term holder accumulation during extreme fear is the most reliable bullish divergence," noted one quantitative analyst. Another commented, "The 33,000 BTC purchase represents smart money positioning against weak hands." The prevailing view among professionals is that this marks a potential regime change from distribution to accumulation.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If the $85,000 support holds and long-term holder accumulation continues, Bitcoin could test the $92,000 resistance within weeks. A break above this level would target the $95,000 fair value gap created in November. Bullish invalidation occurs if price closes below $82,000 on a weekly timeframe.

Bearish Case: If selling pressure resumes and the $85,000 support fails, Bitcoin could retest the $82,000 Fibonacci level. A break below this would open the path to $78,000. Bearish invalidation requires a weekly close above $92,000 with accompanying volume expansion.

FAQs

• What defines a Bitcoin long-term holder? Addresses holding BTC for at least 155 days, as classified by on-chain analytics firms.
• Why is long-term holder accumulation significant? This cohort has historically demonstrated superior timing, often accumulating at market bottoms and distributing near tops.
• How does this relate to current market sentiment? The accumulation occurs during "Extreme Fear" conditions, creating a classic contrarian signal.
• What is the bullish invalidation level? A weekly close below $82,000 would invalidate the bullish accumulation thesis.
• Where can I verify this on-chain data? Analytics platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant provide similar metrics, though methodologies may differ slightly.

Data source: Read Original Report

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.