Trump's 15% Growth Claim Sparks Fed Chair Battle, Crypto Markets Watch

VADODARA, February 10, 2026 — U.S. President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair has ignited a political firestorm, with Trump claiming potential 15% economic growth under Warsh's leadership. This Daily crypto analysis examines the regulatory implications for cryptocurrency markets, where Bitcoin trades at $68,917 amid extreme fear. According to Bloomberg, Trump made these remarks in a Fox Business interview, criticizing his prior appointment of Jerome Powell as a "big mistake." Market structure suggests this political battle could delay monetary policy decisions, directly impacting crypto liquidity cycles.

Investigation: The Fed Chair Nomination and Political Gridlock

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair, forecasting 15% economic growth if Warsh performs well. He attributed his earlier selection of Jerome Powell to a recommendation from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. However, Senate confirmation faces significant hurdles. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block the nomination while the Department of Justice investigates Powell and the Fed's building remodeling project. Trump expressed indifference to potential delays, stating, "if the process is delayed, then it is delayed." This political standoff creates uncertainty for the Fed's December 2025 forecast, which projected one rate cut in 2026, versus market expectations for two cuts.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, Federal Reserve leadership changes correlate with crypto market volatility. Similar to the 2021 correction triggered by taper talk, political uncertainty around monetary policy often precedes liquidity grabs in risk assets. The current extreme fear sentiment, with a Crypto Fear & Greed Index score of 9/100, mirrors conditions seen during the 2018 bear market. Underlying this trend, Bitcoin's price action shows heightened sensitivity to macro policy shifts. In contrast, past Fed transitions under stable political environments, like Powell's initial appointment, saw smoother market adjustments. This nomination battle introduces a layer of regulatory risk not priced into current valuations.

Related Developments: This political uncertainty compounds existing market stress, as seen in MicroStrategy's recent Bitcoin purchase amid sarcastic sentiment and Ethereum's MVRV-Z score signaling a potential bottom.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Bitcoin currently trades at $68,917, down 1.23% in 24 hours. On-chain data indicates a critical support cluster around the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level from the 2025 high, near $68,000. This level aligns with a high-volume node on the volume profile, suggesting institutional accumulation. The RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum with bearish bias. A break below the 200-day moving average at $67,500 would confirm a structural shift. Market structure suggests that political delays in Fed policy could exacerbate selling pressure, similar to the 2023 banking crisis response. Legal precedents, such as the Fed's independence statutes under the Federal Reserve Act, highlight the Senate's role in confirming chairs, adding to the uncertainty timeline.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This nomination battle matters because Federal Reserve policy directly influences global liquidity, a primary driver of crypto valuations. Institutional liquidity cycles depend on rate cut timelines; any delay could tighten capital flows into risk assets. Retail market structure shows increased sensitivity to macro news, with order blocks forming around key support levels. Real-world evidence includes the correlation between Fed policy shifts and Bitcoin's volatility index spikes. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, large holder outflows have increased, suggesting profit-taking amid uncertainty. The Fed's building investigation, cited by Senator Tillis, adds a layer of political risk that could prolong confirmation, impacting market sentiment for months.

Expert Commentary

"Market analysts note that political gridlock over Fed leadership creates a policy vacuum, increasing volatility in crypto markets. Historical cycles suggest that such uncertainty often leads to liquidity dry-ups, as seen in the 2020 pandemic response. The key watchpoint is whether Senate delays alter the rate cut trajectory, which would directly affect Bitcoin's fair value gap." — CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Market structure suggests two primary scenarios based on the Fed nomination outcome. First, a swift confirmation of Warsh could spur risk-on sentiment, lifting Bitcoin toward resistance at $72,500. Second, prolonged Senate battles may sustain extreme fear, testing lower supports. Analysts emphasize monitoring on-chain metrics like UTXO age bands for accumulation signals.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $72,500. A break above this resistance, aligning with the 50-day moving average, would confirm a trend reversal and invalidate the bearish structure.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $68,000. This Fibonacci 0.618 support must hold to maintain the current market structure; a breach could trigger a drop to $65,000.

The 12-month institutional outlook hinges on Fed policy clarity. If confirmation delays push rate cuts into 2027, crypto may face extended consolidation. Conversely, a resolved nomination could align with historical patterns where policy certainty fuels bull runs, supporting a 5-year horizon of growth as liquidity returns.