Fed Speeches, CPI Data Drive Crypto Market Volatility This Week

VADODARA, February 9, 2026 — A dense schedule of Federal Reserve speeches and critical U.S. economic data releases this week will test crypto market structure. According to the official calendar from FederalReserve.gov, events include Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaking today and the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) on February 13. This daily crypto analysis examines the macro catalysts driving Bitcoin's current price action at $70,551.

Investigation: The Macro Event Calendar

The source data outlines a high-frequency macro week. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 6:30 p.m. UTC on February 9. FOMC member Raphael Bostic follows at 8:15 p.m. UTC. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks twice: February 10 at 6:00 p.m. UTC and February 12 at 12:00 a.m. UTC.

U.S. January nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data release on February 11 at 1:30 p.m. UTC. FOMC member Michelle Bowman speaks later that day at 3:15 p.m. UTC. Initial jobless claims data follows on February 12 at 1:30 p.m. UTC. The January CPI, a key inflation gauge, publishes on February 13 at 1:30 p.m. UTC.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, Fed commentary and CPI prints create immediate volatility. The 2023-2024 cycle saw CPI surprises trigger 5-10% Bitcoin swings. In contrast, the current market exhibits Extreme Fear with a score of 14/100. This suggests leveraged positions are thin.

Consequently, any hawkish Fed rhetoric could trigger a liquidity grab. Market structure suggests traders are positioning defensively ahead of the data. Underlying this trend is a broader macro tightening cycle.

Related Developments:

• CME Bitcoin futures show a $730 gap amid current fear.
• Crypto futures recently saw a $100M liquidation surge.
• Bitcoin price action tests $71k support.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Bitcoin currently trades at $70,551. The 24-hour change is 1.80%. On-chain data indicates weak bid support below $70,000. A critical Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level sits at $68,500. This level was not in the source text but is key for structural integrity.

, the 200-day moving average provides dynamic support near $67,200. The RSI on daily charts shows neutral momentum at 48. Market analysts watch for a break of the local high at $72,500 to confirm bullish momentum. Volume profile analysis reveals thin liquidity above $73,000.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

Fed speeches directly influence dollar liquidity. Tight liquidity pressures risk assets like Bitcoin. The CPI data dictates future Fed policy. A hot print could delay rate cuts. This would strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto valuations.

Institutional liquidity cycles depend on these macro signals. Retail market structure often breaks during such events. Historical cycles suggest volatility clusters around CPI releases. This creates both risk and opportunity for tactical traders.

Expert Commentary

"The confluence of Fed talks and CPI data creates a high gamma environment. Market makers will hedge aggressively. This typically amplifies price swings. Traders should watch for order block invalidations around key levels."

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Market structure suggests two primary scenarios based on this week's events.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $72,500. A sustained break above this local high confirms a trend reversal and invalidates the bearish structure.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $68,500. This Fibonacci 0.618 support must hold to maintain the current bullish higher-timeframe structure. A break below targets $67,200.

The 12-month institutional outlook hinges on inflation trends. If CPI moderates, expect renewed institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. This aligns with a positive 5-year horizon for crypto adoption as a macro hedge.