Coinglass 2025 Report Reveals Derivatives Market Contradictions

• Coinglass 2025 derivatives report shows $85.7 trillion total trading volume with daily average of $264.5 billion
• Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) increased Bitcoin holdings from 600,000 to 1.05 million BTC, representing approximately 5% of total supply
• Total liquidations reached $150 billion notional value, concentrated in October-November 2025
• Market structure suggests institutional accumulation contradicts retail liquidation patterns during periods of extreme fear

VADODARA, December 25, 2025 — Coinglass has released its comprehensive 2025 annual report on the cryptocurrency derivatives market, providing critical data points for today's daily crypto analysis. The report, summarized by on-chain analyst AmberCN, reveals a market characterized by institutional accumulation and retail liquidation, with total trading volume reaching approximately $85.7 trillion for the year. Market structure suggests this data must be examined against the current "Extreme Fear" sentiment reading of 23/100 and Bitcoin's price of $87,457 to identify potential contradictions in market behavior.

Market Context & Background

The 2025 derivatives market data arrives during a period of significant market compression. The current Fear & Greed Index reading of 23 represents one of the most extreme fear periods since the 2022 bear market bottom. This psychological backdrop creates a critical framework for analyzing the Coinglass data, particularly the $150 billion in liquidations that occurred primarily in October and November. Historical patterns indicate that such extreme fear readings often precede significant market reversals, yet the institutional accumulation data suggests a different narrative. The Digital Asset Trust accumulation from 600,000 to 1.05 million BTC represents a 75% increase in holdings during a year marked by volatility and regulatory uncertainty. This divergence between institutional behavior and retail sentiment warrants skeptical examination of the official market narrative.

Related developments in the current market environment include US firms continuing to dominate corporate Bitcoin holdings despite extreme fear sentiment, and institutional bullish outlooks for 2026 that contrast with current market psychology.

What Happened?

According to the Coinglass 2025 annual report, the cryptocurrency derivatives market experienced unprecedented scale with total trading volume reaching $85.7 trillion. The daily average of $264.5 billion represents a significant increase from previous years, indicating growing market participation despite regulatory headwinds. Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) demonstrated aggressive accumulation strategies, increasing their Bitcoin holdings from 600,000 at the start of 2025 to 1.05 million by November. This accumulation represents approximately 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, creating a substantial concentration risk that market participants must monitor.

The report identifies Binance, OKX, Bitget, Bybit, and Gate as the top five centralized exchanges by derivatives volume. More significantly, the data reveals $150 billion in total notional value liquidations, with daily liquidations averaging between $400 million and $500 million, primarily concentrated in October and November 2025. This liquidation data coincides with the period when Bitcoin tested key Fibonacci support levels around $82,000, creating what technical analysts would identify as a significant Fair Value Gap (FVG) that remains unfilled. The report also notes substantial growth in crypto prediction markets, expected to exceed $52 billion in cumulative trading volume, and increased interest in on-chain U.S. stock tokens within the Real World Assets (RWA) sector.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure suggests the current Bitcoin price of $87,457 sits within a critical decision zone. The 200-day moving average at approximately $85,200 provides immediate support, while resistance clusters around the $92,000 level represent the next significant hurdle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading below 40 indicates oversold conditions that typically precede reversal opportunities, yet the extreme fear sentiment suggests potential for further downside. Volume profile analysis reveals significant accumulation between $82,000 and $85,000, aligning with the DAT accumulation period identified in the Coinglass report.

The concentration of liquidations in October-November 2025 created what derivatives traders would identify as a Gamma Squeeze scenario, where rapid price movements triggered cascading liquidations. This created Order Blocks around the $82,000 level that now serve as critical support. The Bullish Invalidation level is established at $82,000—a breach below this Fibonacci support would invalidate the current accumulation thesis. Conversely, the Bearish Invalidation level sits at $92,000—a sustained break above this resistance would confirm institutional accumulation patterns and potentially trigger a short squeeze.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

The institutional implications of this data are substantial. DAT accumulation of 5% of total Bitcoin supply represents a concentration of ownership that could significantly impact market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms. According to on-chain data, this accumulation occurred during periods of retail liquidation, suggesting sophisticated players were accumulating during fear-driven selloffs. For retail participants, the $150 billion in liquidations serves as a stark reminder of the risks inherent in leveraged derivatives trading, particularly during volatile periods.

The growth of prediction markets to $52 billion and increased interest in on-chain U.S. stock tokens indicates expanding use cases beyond simple speculation. Decentralized derivatives moving beyond proof-of-concept to actively compete for market share could disrupt the current exchange dominance structure. Market structure suggests these developments could accelerate following the implementation of Ethereum's EIP-4844 upgrade, which significantly reduces layer-2 transaction costs for derivatives protocols.

Community Sentiment

Industry observers express cautious optimism despite the extreme fear reading. Market analysts note that institutional accumulation during fear periods typically precedes sustained rallies. The concentration of liquidations in October-November is viewed by some as a necessary cleansing of overleveraged positions that created healthier market conditions. However, skeptics question whether DAT accumulation represents genuine demand or strategic positioning for regulatory advantages. The growth of prediction markets and RWAs receives broader approval as evidence of maturing use cases beyond pure speculation.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If institutional accumulation patterns continue and the $82,000 support holds, market structure suggests a retest of the $92,000 resistance level. A sustained break above this level could trigger a short squeeze targeting the $98,000 region. The reduction in leveraged positions following the October-November liquidations creates a healthier foundation for upward movement. Decentralized derivatives gaining market share could increase overall market efficiency and reduce counterparty risk.

Bearish Case: If the $82,000 support fails, technical analysis indicates potential downside to the $78,000 level, which represents the next significant Volume Profile Point of Control. Continued extreme fear sentiment could prolong the current consolidation phase, with range-bound trading between $82,000 and $92,000 persisting through Q1 2026. Regulatory developments, particularly regarding DAT structures, could introduce unexpected volatility. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, as documented on FederalReserve.gov, will continue to influence macro conditions for risk assets.

FAQs

What percentage of Bitcoin supply do DATs control according to the Coinglass report? Digital Asset Trusts control approximately 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, having increased holdings from 600,000 to 1.05 million BTC during 2025.

How much was liquidated in the crypto derivatives market in 2025? Total notional value of liquidated positions reached $150 billion, with daily liquidations averaging between $400 million and $500 million during peak periods.

What is the current market sentiment according to the Fear & Greed Index? The current reading is 23/100, indicating "Extreme Fear" sentiment among market participants.

Which exchanges dominated derivatives trading volume in 2025? Binance, OKX, Bitget, Bybit, and Gate were ranked as the top five centralized exchanges by derivatives trading volume.

What growth areas does the report identify beyond traditional derivatives? The report highlights significant growth in crypto prediction markets (expected to exceed $52 billion in cumulative volume) and increased interest in on-chain U.S. stock tokens within the RWA sector.

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.