BofA Projects No FOMC Surprises as Bitcoin Holds $90k Amid Extreme Fear

VADODARA, January 23, 2026 — Bank of America Securities projects no major surprises at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This daily crypto analysis examines the implications for Bitcoin, currently trading at $90,839 amid extreme fear sentiment. Market structure suggests a liquidity grab is underway.

Market Context & Background

Federal Reserve policy decisions have dictated crypto volatility since 2022. The current cycle mirrors 2023's pause phase. According to BofA Securities, investors will scrutinize Chair Powell's comments on unemployment and the neutral rate. Historical cycles suggest Bitcoin often consolidates around FOMC events before trending. This aligns with recent US GDP revisions testing Bitcoin support.

What Happened?

BofA Securities issued a projection on January 23, 2026. The firm expects the FOMC to maintain its existing stance. No significant policy changes are anticipated. Per the official Federal Reserve calendar, the meeting concludes January 28. Powell's press conference could focus on political matters. Market analysts note this reduces immediate rate hike risks.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin's current price of $90,839 sits at a critical volume profile node. The 200-day moving average provides dynamic support near $88,500. RSI readings show neutral momentum at 52. A Fair Value Gap exists between $92,500 and $94,000. This order block must be filled for bullish continuation. Bullish invalidation level: $88,500. Bearish invalidation level: $95,200. A break above suggests a gamma squeeze toward $100,000.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

Institutional impact: A stable Fed reduces Treasury yield volatility. This could increase capital allocation to risk assets like Bitcoin. Retail impact: Lower macro uncertainty allows focus on on-chain metrics. Market structure suggests Bitcoin's EIP-4844 adoption could drive the next narrative. According to on-chain data, whale accumulation has increased near current levels.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter highlight the extreme fear reading. Bulls argue this is a contrarian signal. Bears point to regulatory overhangs. One trader noted, "The FOMC pause is priced in; the real move comes from Powell's tone." This sentiment echoes concerns about SEC regulatory shifts.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish case: FOMC delivers no surprises. Bitcoin fills the FVG to $94,000. A breakout above $95,200 targets $100,000. This scenario requires sustained buying pressure. Bearish case: Powell hints at future hikes. Bitcoin breaks $88,500 support. A drop to $85,000 follows. This aligns with a broader liquidity grab. On-chain data indicates both scenarios have near-equal probability.