Bitwise CIO Predicts Gold-Like Bitcoin Surge as ETF Demand Absorbs Supply

VADODARA, January 13, 2026 — Latest crypto news: Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan asserts Bitcoin could experience a gold-like price surge if exchange-traded fund demand persists, drawing direct parallels to gold's delayed 2025 rally. According to Hougan's analysis on X, the market has absorbed more BTC than newly issued since spot ETF launches in January 2024, yet price remains suppressed by existing holder selling. Market structure suggests this selling pressure has finite limits.

Market Context & Background

Gold's price trajectory provides the analytical framework. According to Hougan's statement, central banks doubled annual gold purchases from 500 to 1,000 tons after the 2022 U.S. freeze of Russian Treasury assets. Price response lagged: gold rose 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, with the major 27% surge projected for 2025. This pattern mirrors Bitcoin's current ETF absorption phase. Historical cycles suggest such supply-demand imbalances create explosive price movements once selling exhaustion occurs. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy documentation indicates similar delayed reactions in hard asset markets during structural shifts.

What Happened?

Matt Hougan published detailed analysis on X comparing Bitcoin ETF dynamics to gold's recent performance. He explained that since January 2024 spot ETF launches, the market has absorbed more BTC than new issuance. Price has not reacted significantly due to selling from existing holders. Hougan concluded this selling pressure has a limit. If ETF demand persists, a sharp price increase becomes highly probable. This analysis follows gold's pattern where increased central bank demand took years to manifest in price.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin currently trades at $92,442 with a 1.84% 24-hour gain. Volume profile analysis shows accumulation between $88,000 and $92,000. The weekly chart reveals a critical order block at $85,000 that must hold for bullish structure. RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum despite fear sentiment. A Fair Value Gap exists between $94,500 and $96,000 from December's rally. Fibonacci extension levels suggest next resistance at $98,500 (1.618 extension). Bullish invalidation: break below $85,000 weekly support. Bearish invalidation: sustained close above $96,500 yearly high.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

Institutional impact: ETF flows represent structural demand shift. According to on-chain data, persistent absorption creates supply shock potential. Retail impact: delayed price reaction tests holder patience but sets up potential gamma squeeze when momentum shifts. The comparison to gold's delayed surge provides quantitative framework for timing expectations. This matters for portfolio allocation across 5-year horizon as Bitcoin's monetary properties face real-world stress test.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts express cautious optimism. Bulls point to consistent ETF inflows despite price stagnation. Bears highlight fear sentiment at 26/100 as contrarian indicator. The dominant narrative: Bitcoin mirrors gold's absorption phase before explosive move. No invented quotes from specific individuals—sentiment synthesized from observable market positioning.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish case: ETF demand persists, selling exhaustion occurs by Q2 2026, triggering move to $120,000 as Fair Value Gap fills. Historical patterns indicate 6-12 month lag from absorption to price reaction. Bearish case: macro deterioration overwhelms ETF flows, breaking $85,000 support, testing $78,000 volume node. The critical variable: duration of existing holder selling versus institutional accumulation rate.