B. Riley Forecasts Digital Assets Shift from Speculation to Infrastructure in 2026

VADODARA, January 8, 2026 — Investment bank B. Riley has identified 2026 as a structural inflection point where digital assets transition from speculative instruments to substantive financial infrastructure, according to their latest analysis reported by CoinDesk. This latest crypto news arrives as Bitcoin trades at $89,725, down 2.10% in 24 hours, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registering a fear score of 28/100, creating a divergence between short-term price action and long-term institutional positioning.

Market Context & Background

Market structure suggests this forecast aligns with a multi-year trend of institutional adoption accelerating post-2024 Bitcoin ETF approvals. Underlying this trend is the maturation of regulatory frameworks that reduce counterparty risk and enhance settlement finality. Historical cycles indicate that similar infrastructure transitions in traditional finance, such as the digitization of equities in the 1970s, typically precede multi-decade growth phases. Consequently, the current market correction may represent a liquidity grab rather than structural weakness, as evidenced by recent whale movements transferring $1B USDT between protocols. Related developments include analysis of large stablecoin transfers and profit-taking signals in ETF outflows.

What Happened?

According to CoinDesk, B. Riley's analysis identifies four primary catalysts driving this infrastructure transition: clearer stablecoin regulations, increased tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), enhanced governance frameworks, and improved interoperability between bank ledgers and public blockchains. The bank specifically noted that digital asset treasury companies (DATCOs) are evolving beyond token acquisition to adopt operations-focused business models capable of generating sustainable revenue. This shift mirrors technical developments in blockchain infrastructure, such as Ethereum's EIP-4844 implementation reducing layer-2 transaction costs by 90%, which fundamentally alters the economic viability of on-chain financial applications.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

On-chain data indicates Bitcoin's current price action at $89,725 represents a test of the 50-day exponential moving average, a key institutional benchmark. Volume profile analysis shows accumulation between $82,000 and $86,000, creating a significant order block that must hold for the infrastructure thesis to remain valid. The relative strength index (RSI) at 42 suggests neutral momentum despite the fear sentiment reading. Bullish invalidation occurs below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level at $82,000, which would signal a breakdown of the current market structure. Bearish invalidation requires a sustained break above $95,000 with confirmed volume, indicating institutional capital flows overcoming short-term profit-taking pressure.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional portfolios, this transition represents a fundamental repricing of digital assets from beta-driven speculation to alpha-generating infrastructure. According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's framework for digital asset securities, clearer regulations reduce regulatory uncertainty premiums typically priced into crypto assets by 300-500 basis points. For retail investors, the shift toward operations-focused DATCOs creates new yield opportunities beyond simple price appreciation, particularly through real-world asset tokenization protocols that generate revenue from underlying cash flows. This structural change mirrors the evolution of internet stocks in the early 2000s, where infrastructure companies outperformed speculative dot-com ventures during the consolidation phase.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter highlight the divergence between short-term price action and long-term fundamentals. One quantitative researcher noted, "The fear index at 28 while institutions build infrastructure suggests a classic gamma squeeze setup once sentiment flips." Another analyst pointed to recent upgrades of crypto infrastructure stocks as confirmation of the broader trend. The consensus among technical traders is that current price action represents a fair value gap (FVG) between $86,000 and $92,000 that will eventually be filled as institutional capital deployment accelerates.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If the infrastructure thesis holds and Bitcoin maintains support above $82,000, the next logical target is $110,000 based on measured move projections from the recent consolidation range. This scenario requires sustained institutional inflows into tokenized real-world assets and interoperability protocols, with DATCOs generating verifiable revenue streams. Technical analysis suggests a breakout above $95,000 would confirm this trajectory, potentially triggering a short squeeze as over-leveraged shorts cover positions.

Bearish Case: Failure to hold $82,000 support would invalidate the current market structure, suggesting the infrastructure transition is premature. This could lead to a retest of $75,000 as profit-taking accelerates and regulatory clarity faces unexpected delays. On-chain forensic data indicates that such a breakdown would likely coincide with increased stablecoin redemptions and reduced network activity, signaling a return to speculative rather than utility-driven valuation models.