Altcoin Season Index Rises to 18 Amid Extreme Fear Market: Daily Crypto Analysis

• CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index increased two points to 18 on December 24, 2025.
• Bitcoin price declined 1.45% to $87,285 while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered Extreme Fear at 24/100.
• Market structure suggests a potential liquidity grab below the $85,000 psychological support level.
• Historical patterns indicate altcoin seasons typically begin when the index surpasses 75.

VADODARA, December 24, 2025 — CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index rose two points to 18 on Tuesday, signaling a minor shift in relative performance dynamics between Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies. This daily crypto analysis examines the technical implications of this movement within a market environment characterized by extreme fear, with Bitcoin trading at $87,285 after a 1.45% decline over the past 24 hours. According to the index methodology, an altcoin season is declared when 75% of the top 100 coins by market capitalization outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period.

Market Context & Background

The Altcoin Season Index serves as a quantitative measure of capital rotation between Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies. Historically, readings below 25 have correlated with Bitcoin dominance phases, while values above 75 have signaled sustained altcoin outperformance. The current reading of 18 places the market firmly in Bitcoin season territory, despite the two-point increase. This mirrors the 2021 market structure where Bitcoin established dominance before altcoins experienced their parabolic move. Underlying this trend is the persistent extreme fear sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stagnating at 24, creating a market contradiction where price action diverges from traditional sentiment indicators.

Related developments in this environment include the expansion of Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions like Rootstock and analysis suggesting potential decoupling between Bitcoin and traditional equity indices.

What Happened?

On December 24, 2025, CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index increased from 16 to 18, according to the platform's official data. The index calculation excludes stablecoins and wrapped coins, focusing purely on the price performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin. Concurrently, Bitcoin price declined to $87,285, representing a 1.45% decrease over the previous 24 hours. Market analysts note that this minor index increase occurred despite Bitcoin's price weakness, suggesting selective altcoin strength rather than broad-based rotation. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained at 24, maintaining its Extreme Fear classification for the third consecutive day.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure suggests Bitcoin is testing a critical order block between $86,500 and $87,500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe currently reads 42, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The 50-day moving average provides dynamic support at $84,200, while Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high show confluence at $85,000 (61.8% level). A Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists between $88,500 and $89,200 from last week's price action, creating a potential target for short-term rallies. Volume profile analysis indicates significant liquidity pools below $85,000, suggesting a potential liquidity grab before any sustained upward movement.

Bullish invalidation occurs if Bitcoin fails to hold the $84,200 level (50-day MA), which would likely trigger accelerated selling. Bearish invalidation occurs if Bitcoin reclaims and sustains above the $90,000 psychological resistance, invalidating the current downtrend structure.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional investors, the Altcoin Season Index provides a systematic framework for capital allocation decisions between Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies. The current reading of 18 suggests maintaining Bitcoin-heavy portfolios, though the two-point increase warrants monitoring for early rotation signals. Retail traders often misinterpret minor index movements as signals for altcoin accumulation, potentially exposing themselves to asymmetric risk during extreme fear environments. The divergence between the index increase and Bitcoin's price decline creates a market microstructure worth examining, particularly in the context of Federal Reserve monetary policy and its impact on risk assets.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on social media platforms express skepticism about the sustainability of altcoin strength given the extreme fear environment. One quantitative trader noted, "The two-point index increase represents statistical noise rather than structural change until we see sustained movement above 25." Another analyst highlighted the contradiction: "Extreme fear typically precedes market bottoms, yet the Altcoin Season Index suggests we're far from altcoin season conditions." This sentiment aligns with broader market observations about the persistent extreme fear reading creating market contradictions.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If Bitcoin establishes support above $85,000 and the Altcoin Season Index continues its upward trajectory, we could see a gradual rotation into select altcoins. A break above the $90,000 resistance would likely accelerate this process, with the index potentially testing the 25 level within two weeks. Historical patterns indicate that sustained index increases often precede broader altcoin rallies by 4-6 weeks.

Bearish Case: If Bitcoin breaks below the $84,200 support (50-day MA), the Altcoin Season Index would likely decline further as capital flees to Bitcoin's relative safety. This would reinforce the Bitcoin dominance narrative and potentially push the index back toward 15 or lower. The extreme fear environment could exacerbate selling pressure across all cryptocurrencies, delaying any altcoin season prospects until 2026.

FAQs

What is the Altcoin Season Index?The Altcoin Season Index measures the percentage of top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and wrapped coins) outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day period. A reading above 75 signals altcoin season.

Why did the index rise while Bitcoin price fell?The two-point increase to 18 suggests selective altcoin strength rather than broad-based rotation. Some alternative cryptocurrencies may be showing relative resilience despite Bitcoin's decline.

What does Extreme Fear sentiment mean for altcoins?Historically, extreme fear environments have preceded market bottoms, but they typically favor Bitcoin over altcoins due to its perceived safety and liquidity advantages.

How reliable is the Altcoin Season Index for trading decisions?The index provides macro context but should be combined with technical analysis, on-chain data, and broader market factors. Readings below 25 have historically correlated with Bitcoin dominance phases.

When was the last altcoin season?The most recent altcoin season occurred in early 2024 when the index surpassed 75 for several weeks, coinciding with Ethereum's Shanghai upgrade and increased Layer 2 adoption.

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.