Wintermute Predicts Volatility Until H2, Denies FTX-Style Crypto Collapse

VADODARA, February 3, 2026 — Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute forecasts sustained market volatility through the first half of 2026. This Latest crypto news stems from unresolved policy uncertainty. The firm attributes recent Bitcoin declines below $80,000 to macroeconomic headwinds. Wintermute explicitly contrasts this downturn with FTX and Luna collapses. Market structure suggests this is a liquidity-driven correction, not a structural failure.

Investigation: Wintermute's Macro Analysis and Liquidation Event

According to Wintermute's statement, Bitcoin breached $80,000 for the first time since April 2025. This triggered $2.55 billion in forced liquidations. The firm cites multiple macro factors for the decline. These include disappointing earnings from U.S. Magnificent Seven companies. , the nomination of hawk Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair added pressure. A cooling precious metals sector also contributed to the sell-off.

Wintermute emphasizes this differs from FTX and Luna events. Those collapses involved structural bankruptcies and fraud. In contrast, current volatility stems from macro environmental shifts. Position liquidations drive price action, not insolvencies. The firm highlights stronger crypto infrastructure today. Continued stablecoin adoption provides a liquidity backstop. Market sentiment could recover quickly once Fed policy clarifies.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, macro-driven volatility periods last 6-12 months. The 2018 bear market followed Fed rate hikes. Similarly, 2022 saw correlation with inflation data. Current conditions mirror these liquidity withdrawal phases. However, underlying blockchain health shows improvement. Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake reduced sell pressure. Bitcoin's hash rate remains near all-time highs.

In contrast, the FTX collapse represented a centralized failure. It exposed counterparty risk in opaque exchanges. Luna's algorithmic stablecoin design proved fundamentally flawed. Today's market faces different challenges. Regulatory clarity remains elusive globally. The SEC's stance on crypto assets continues to evolve. Consequently, institutional capital adopts a cautious stance.

Related developments include HashKey Capital withdrawing $14.8M ETH from Binance amid similar fear. Additionally, TrendResearch sold $80.85M ETH recently, indicating strategic repositioning.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Market structure suggests Bitcoin faces a critical test. The break below $80,000 created a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $78,000 and $82,000. This zone now acts as resistance. On-chain data indicates increased coin movement from long-term holders. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) shows realized losses accelerating.

Technical analysis reveals key levels. The 200-day moving average provides dynamic support near $76,500. More critically, the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement from the 2025 low sits at $75,000. This level represents a major Order Block for institutional buyers. A breach would invalidate the bullish macro structure.

RSI readings hover near oversold territory at 32. However, oversold conditions can persist in downtrends. Volume profile shows concentrated selling at $79,500. This creates a liquidity grab zone for future rallies. The Gamma Squeeze potential remains low due to reduced options open interest.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This volatility period tests crypto's institutional adoption thesis. Pension funds and ETFs now hold significant Bitcoin exposure. Prolonged uncertainty could delay further allocations. However, the absence of structural collapses supports the maturation narrative. Market infrastructure has improved since 2022.

Real-world evidence appears in derivative markets. Perpetual funding rates turned negative recently. This indicates bearish sentiment among leveraged traders. Spot volumes declined 40% month-over-month. Institutional platforms like CME see reduced open interest. These metrics suggest cautious positioning, not panic.

The Federal Reserve's policy path remains the dominant variable. According to FederalReserve.gov, inflation projections influence rate decisions. A hawkish chair nomination increases policy uncertainty. This directly impacts risk asset correlations.

Expert Commentary

Market structure suggests this is a macro liquidity event, not a crypto-specific failure. The $2.55B liquidation flush removed weak leverage. Stronger infrastructure prevents FTX-style contagion. However, the Fibonacci 0.618 level at $75k must hold to maintain the bullish thesis. - CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Two data-backed scenarios emerge from current conditions. The first assumes Fed clarity emerges by Q3 2026. This could trigger a rapid sentiment recovery. Stablecoin adoption provides immediate buying power. The second scenario involves prolonged policy uncertainty. This extends volatility through year-end.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $82,000 - The Fair Value Gap resistance zone. A daily close above this level confirms trend reversal and targets $85,000.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $75,000 - The Fibonacci 0.618 support. A sustained break below invalidates the bullish structure and opens $70,000.

The 12-month outlook depends on macro resolution. Institutional capital awaits regulatory clarity. The SEC's treatment of crypto assets remains . A favorable ruling could unlock billions in dormant allocations. Conversely, restrictive policies may prolong the volatility Wintermute predicts. The 5-year horizon still favors adoption, but near-term pain appears inevitable.