US Jobs Data Beats Forecast, Fuels Fed Rate Uncertainty for Crypto

VADODARA, February 11, 2026 — The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a significant beat on January non-farm payrolls. This Latest crypto news injects immediate volatility into digital asset markets. Jobs grew by 130,000, nearly double the 66,000 forecast. Unemployment ticked down to 4.3%. Market structure now prices a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve stance.

Investigation: The January Jobs Report Breakdown

According to the official BLS release, the US economy added 130,000 jobs last month. This figure shattered consensus estimates. The unemployment rate concurrently fell to 4.3%. It edged below the expected 4.4%. This data is a primary input for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Consequently, traders swiftly repriced interest rate expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool showed odds shifting. Market analysts now see a reduced chance of a March rate cut. Strong labor metrics signal economic resilience. They potentially justify maintaining restrictive monetary policy. The Fed's official mandate prioritizes maximum employment and price stability. Current data supports the former.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, tightening Fed policy correlates with crypto drawdowns. The 2022 cycle serves as a stark precedent. Aggressive rate hikes triggered a 75% Bitcoin correction. Liquidity evaporated from risk assets. Current conditions echo that macro setup. Underlying this trend is the global dollar liquidity cycle.

In contrast, the 2024-2025 rally coincided with Fed pivot expectations. Market participants front-ran potential easing. Today's data disrupts that narrative. It creates a Fair Value Gap between current prices and fundamental reality. , this news compounds existing market stress. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads "Extreme Fear" at 11/100.

Related Macro Developments:

• Amid this tightening backdrop, Danske Bank reversed its long-standing crypto ban, launching BTC and ETH ETPs.
• Concurrently, Levl secured $7 million in seed funding to develop stablecoin payment infrastructure.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Bitcoin price action reflects the macro shock. BTC trades at $67,007, down 2.46% in 24 hours. Critical support converges at the $65,000 level. This zone aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing high. A breakdown here targets the 200-day simple moving average near $62,000.

On-chain data from Glassnode indicates weakening holder conviction. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has turned negative. This suggests realized losses are occurring. The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) shows high-volume nodes at $68,500. This acts as immediate resistance. Market structure suggests this is a classic Liquidity Grab below key supports.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This jobs report directly impacts the Fed's reaction function. According to the Federal Reserve's official framework, sustained labor strength argues against premature easing. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Institutional capital flows often follow Treasury yields.

, strong data may delay or diminish quantitative tightening (QT) taper prospects. Reduced liquidity injection weighs on all risk assets. The crypto market's high beta amplifies this effect. Retail leverage, visible in perpetual futures funding rates, exacerbates the move. Market analysts note a potential Gamma Squeeze scenario if volatility spikes further.

Expert Commentary

"The January payrolls print is a hawkish surprise. It validates the Fed's patient stance and pushes rate cut expectations further into 2026. For crypto, this reinforces a defensive market posture. Traders should monitor real yields and dollar index (DXY) strength as primary macro drivers in the coming weeks." – CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Two primary technical scenarios emerge from current market structure.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $70,000. A sustained break above this resistance, which aligns with the 20-day EMA and a prior Order Block, would invalidate the immediate bearish structure and signal a relief rally toward $72,500.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $65,000. A daily close below this confluence support zone opens a path toward the next significant Volume Profile node at $62,000. This would confirm a deeper corrective phase.

The 12-month institutional outlook now hinges on inflation data. The next Consumer Price Index (CPI) report becomes critical. A hot CPI paired with strong jobs data could cement a prolonged restrictive policy. This would pressure crypto valuations through 2026. Conversely, disinflationary trends could restore the "Fed pivot" narrative later in the year.