US Crypto Bill Delay to 2027 Creates Regulatory Uncertainty for Bitcoin

VADODARA, January 6, 2026 — The passage of a major U.S. crypto market structure bill could be delayed until 2027, according to Jaret Seiberg, a managing director at TD Cowen. This daily crypto analysis examines the structural implications for market liquidity and price action. Seiberg's comments, reported by The Block, suggest political uncertainty makes 2027 more likely than 2025. Market structure suggests this delay creates a regulatory Fair Value Gap (FVG) that institutions must price in.

Market Context & Background

This development occurs amid fragmented global regulatory approaches. The U.S. has lagged behind jurisdictions like the European Union, which implemented MiCA in 2024. According to the official SEC.gov framework, current enforcement actions rely on decades-old securities laws. The CLARITY Act aims to modernize this by dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC. Historical cycles suggest regulatory clarity typically precedes institutional capital inflows. The current delay mirrors the 2021-2023 period when similar bills stalled in committee.

What Happened?

TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg provided analysis to The Block. He stated the Democratic Party has little incentive to rush legislation before November midterm elections. Seiberg assessed that passage in 2027 with a 2029 effective date could reduce market disruption. The bill includes provisions to exempt certain cryptocurrencies from Securities Act of 1933 registration. A hearing on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for January 15, 2026. According to the source material, the bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin currently trades at $94,017, up 2.93% in 24 hours. On-chain data indicates weak volume profile near the $95,000 resistance level. The 50-day moving average sits at $91,500, providing immediate support. RSI readings at 58 suggest neutral momentum with slight bullish bias. Market structure suggests a potential Liquidity Grab below $90,000 if regulatory uncertainty intensifies. The Bullish Invalidation level is $90,000—a break below signals deeper correction. The Bearish Invalidation level is $98,500—a break above indicates market discounting regulatory delays.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutions, delayed clarity postpones standardized custody solutions and ETF expansion. According to Ethereum.org documentation on network upgrades, regulatory uncertainty slows Layer-2 adoption and DeFi innovation. For retail, extended ambiguity maintains higher compliance costs and exchange fragmentation. The 5-year horizon shows that without clear rules, U.S. risks ceding market share to offshore jurisdictions. Market analysts note this could impact Bitcoin's store-of-value narrative if regulatory overhang persists.

Community Sentiment

Industry voices express frustration. Market analysts on X/Twitter highlight the political calculus behind the delay. One commented, "The CLARITY Act delay shows regulatory capture still dominates." Another noted, "2027 implementation means we're trading in a gray zone for three more years." The dominant sentiment suggests markets have priced in some delay, but 2027 exceeds expectations.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If the January 15 hearing shows bipartisan progress, Bitcoin could test $98,500. Institutional accumulation during uncertainty creates a strong Order Block at $90,000. Historical patterns indicate regulatory delays often precede explosive rallies once resolved.

Bearish Case: Extended uncertainty triggers a Gamma Squeeze as options markets reprice volatility. Bitcoin breaks $90,000 support, targeting the Fibonacci level at $82,000. On-chain data indicates weak hands would capitulate below $88,000.