Trump Tariff Ruling Threatens Dollar Liquidity, Bitcoin Tests $91k Support

VADODARA, January 12, 2026 — The latest crypto news centers on a potential Supreme Court ruling that could force the U.S. Treasury to refund hundreds of billions in tariff revenues, creating dollar liquidity pressures that historically precede cryptocurrency volatility spikes. According to the official statement from President Donald Trump, such an outcome would be "practically unaffordable" and trigger national chaos, with the ruling expected January 14. Market structure suggests this event creates a macro catalyst similar to the 2021 debt ceiling debates, where Bitcoin's correlation with dollar liquidity metrics intensified.

Market Context & Background

This development mirrors the 2018-2019 trade war period when tariff uncertainties created dollar liquidity gaps that Bitcoin capitalized on as a non-sovereign asset. According to Federal Reserve data on monetary aggregates, periods of fiscal uncertainty typically see increased velocity in stablecoin flows as capital seeks alternative settlement layers. The current scenario presents a textbook macro setup: potential forced Treasury outflows could weaken the dollar's dominance index, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG) in currency markets that cryptocurrencies historically fill. Similar to the 2021 correction triggered by Fed taper talk, the market is pricing in liquidity redistribution rather than fundamental asset deterioration.

Related Developments: This regulatory uncertainty coincides with other institutional movements, including Binance Research's analysis of institutional adoption phases and Kalshi data showing 60% probability of congressional stock bans, indicating broader regulatory repricing across financial markets.

What Happened?

According to the primary source at CoinNess, President Trump explicitly warned that a Supreme Court ruling against his administration's tariff policies could force the U.S. to refund "hundreds of billions of dollars." He characterized this outcome as creating "immense chaos" and being financially unsustainable. The Court is scheduled to issue its ruling on January 14, 2026, creating a binary event risk for dollar-denominated assets. This follows previous reporting from CoinNess about the Court's deliberation timeline, making this a scheduled volatility catalyst rather than a black swan event.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin currently trades at $91,811, representing a 1.13% gain over 24 hours amid broader fear sentiment. The daily chart shows consolidation between the $93,200 resistance (previous swing high) and $90,500 support (Volume Profile Point of Control). The 50-day moving average at $89,800 provides secondary confluence. Market structure suggests this is a liquidity accumulation zone before the January 14 event. The RSI at 42 indicates neutral momentum with bearish divergence on lower timeframes, typical of pre-event compression.

Bullish Invalidation Level: $90,500. A sustained break below this Volume Profile support would invalidate the current accumulation thesis and target the $88,200 Order Block from December's rally initiation.

Bearish Invalidation Level: $93,500. A clean break above this resistance would fill the current FVG and likely trigger a short Gamma Squeeze toward $95,000.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional portfolios, this represents a classic correlation trade: dollar weakness typically benefits hard assets with limited supply elasticity. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's illiquid supply ratio has reached 76%, meaning most coins are held in cold storage regardless of macro noise. This reduces sell-side pressure during liquidity events. For retail traders, the immediate impact is volatility expansion around the January 14 ruling. Historical cycles suggest that forced Treasury outflows would initially create risk-off sentiment across all assets, followed by capital rotation into censorship-resistant settlement layers as trust in traditional systems degrades.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter are divided between macro bulls viewing this as a dollar debasement catalyst and technical traders warning of immediate downside risk. One quantitative fund manager noted, "The tariff ruling creates a binary outcome similar to the 2020 election uncertainty—either way, volatility gets repriced higher." This sentiment aligns with options market data showing increased demand for Bitcoin strangles expiring post-January 14.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case (40% Probability): A Supreme Court ruling upholding tariffs maintains status quo dollar liquidity. Bitcoin breaks above $93,500 resistance, triggering a Gamma Squeeze toward $97,000 as institutional capital reallocates from traditional finance amid regulatory uncertainty. This scenario would see Ethereum's Pectra upgrade (EIP-7251) gaining attention as a technical catalyst alongside macro developments.

Bearish Case (60% Probability): The Court rules against tariffs, triggering immediate dollar liquidity outflows and risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin breaks $90,500 support, targeting the $88,200 Order Block and potentially $85,000 if correlation with traditional markets spikes. This would represent a liquidity grab before a longer-term recovery as capital seeks alternative stores of value.