Galaxy CEO Attributes Crypto Downturn to Structural Shift, Not Single Event

VADODARA, February 11, 2026 — Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz framed the ongoing cryptocurrency market correction as a structural industry transformation rather than an event-driven collapse. Speaking at the CNBC Digital Finance Forum in New York, Novogratz argued that the current downturn lacks a distinct trigger like the 2022 FTX implosion. This latest crypto news highlights a critical divergence from previous market cycles where clear catalysts drove price action.

Investigation: The Structural Shift Thesis

According to Novogratz's public remarks, the October 2024 liquidation event serves as a key inflection point. Over 1.6 million traders experienced leveraged position liquidations totaling $19.37 billion in a single day. This massive deleveraging event created what technical analysts term a "Fair Value Gap" in market structure. Novogratz noted that retail investors and liquidity providers subsequently exited en masse, creating persistent selling pressure that previous bullish narratives cannot overcome.

Market structure suggests this represents more than typical volatility. The CEO specifically contrasted this with the FTX collapse, which he characterized as having a clear cause—loss of trust in a centralized entity. The current environment lacks such a singular catalyst. Consequently, the market faces what institutional traders call a "liquidity vacuum" where traditional support levels fail to hold.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, crypto corrections followed identifiable patterns. The 2018 bear market stemmed from ICO bubble deflation. The 2022 downturn centered on Terra/Luna and FTX collapses. In contrast, current price action shows correlation breakdowns between major assets, suggesting deeper structural issues. Underlying this trend is what Novogratz termed "the end of the age of speculation."

, regulatory developments amplify this structural shift. Novogratz highlighted growing bipartisan consensus around the CLARITY Act, which aims to establish clear crypto market structure rules. This legislative push mirrors historical moments when regulatory clarity followed market turmoil, such as post-2008 financial reforms. The Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet normalization adds another layer of macro pressure, reducing liquidity across risk assets.

Related developments in the regulatory include Bithumb facing sanctions review in Korea and ongoing FTX legal proceedings seeking retrial, indicating global regulatory scrutiny intensifying alongside market stress.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

On-chain data indicates critical support levels are being tested. Bitcoin currently trades at $68,608, down 2.34% in 24 hours. The weekly Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level sits at $65,200, representing a order block for institutional buyers. Market structure suggests failure to hold this level could trigger cascading liquidations similar to October 2024.

Volume profile analysis reveals thinning liquidity above $72,000, creating what traders call a "gamma squeeze" zone where options-related hedging could exacerbate moves. The 200-day moving average at $70,500 acts as dynamic resistance. Ethereum shows similar weakness, with its post-merge issuance schedule failing to provide price support despite reduced supply inflation.

Technical architecture reveals deeper issues. The liquidation event Novogratz referenced created what analysts term an "invalidation level" at $75,000 for Bitcoin. Price action below this level confirms structural damage rather than temporary correction. Per Ethereum's official documentation on network upgrades, fundamental improvements like EIP-4844 blobs have not offset macro headwinds.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This structural shift matters because it redefines market participation cycles. Retail exit creates what institutional desks call "asymmetric liquidity profiles" where large orders disproportionately impact prices. The CLARITY Act's potential passage could establish regulatory frameworks that either stabilize or further constrain market structure.

Real-world evidence appears in exchange behavior. Platforms like Coinbase adding assets amid extreme fear and OKX clashing with Binance over values indicate industry fragmentation under pressure. Market structure suggests these developments reflect adaptation to new liquidity realities rather than growth narratives.

Expert Commentary

"The 'age of speculation' is gradually coming to an end. We're seeing a bipartisan consensus to pass the CLARITY Act, which is essential for restoring market trust and momentum." - Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO

The CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk adds: "Novogratz's analysis aligns with on-chain forensic data showing declining network activity across major Layer-1 chains. However, skepticism remains about whether regulatory clarity alone can reverse structural outflows without fundamental utility improvements."

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Market structure suggests two primary scenarios based on current technicals and Novogratz's structural thesis.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $72,000. A sustained break above this resistance, confirmed by increasing on-chain activity and reduced exchange outflows, would invalidate the structural damage narrative and suggest the correction has ended.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $65,200. A weekly close below the Fibonacci 0.618 support would confirm structural breakdown, potentially triggering another liquidation spiral toward the $58,000 volume gap area.

The 12-month institutional outlook depends on regulatory developments and liquidity returning. Historical cycles suggest extreme fear periods like the current 9/100 reading often precede significant rallies, but only after capitulation completes. The CLARITY Act's progress will determine whether 2026 becomes a foundation-building year or continued contraction.