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- Multicoin Capital executed a $30 million OTC purchase of Worldcoin (WLD) tokens from the project team
- Transaction occurred during "Extreme Fear" market conditions with Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 23/100
- WLD price shows immediate technical reaction with key support at $0.48 and resistance at $0.52
- Market structure suggests this mirrors institutional accumulation patterns from previous bear market bottoms
VADODARA, December 25, 2025 — Multicoin Capital appears to have purchased $30 million worth of Worldcoin (WLD) tokens directly from the project's treasury in an over-the-counter transaction, according to on-chain data analysis. This daily crypto analysis reveals the transaction occurred during extreme market fear conditions, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registering 23/100, suggesting sophisticated capital deployment against prevailing retail sentiment.
Market structure suggests this transaction mirrors institutional accumulation patterns observed during the 2021-2022 bear market transition. Similar to venture capital firms acquiring discounted tokens during the FTX collapse, OTC deals during periods of extreme fear typically signal smart money positioning ahead of potential liquidity shifts. The current market environment, with Bitcoin trading at $87,518 and altcoins under severe pressure, creates optimal conditions for strategic accumulation. Historical data from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycles indicates that institutional capital tends to deploy during fear periods when retail capitulation creates asymmetric opportunities.
Related developments in the current market environment include:
According to on-chain data cited by AmberCN, an address beginning with 0xf000 and suspected to belong to Multicoin Capital transferred 30 million USDC to a Worldcoin team address. Seven hours later, the same address received 60 million WLD tokens valued at approximately $29.06 million. The transaction represents a direct OTC purchase from the project treasury, bypassing public market slippage and signaling a strategic allocation rather than speculative trading. Market analysts note the timing coincides with Worldcoin's ongoing biometric verification expansion despite regulatory scrutiny from data protection authorities in multiple jurisdictions.
WLD price action shows immediate reaction to the OTC news, with the token testing the $0.48 support level that has held since November. The 4-hour chart reveals a clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $0.46 and $0.50 that remains unfilled. Volume Profile analysis indicates significant accumulation between $0.45 and $0.52, with the Point of Control (POC) at $0.49. The 50-day moving average at $0.51 provides immediate resistance, while the 200-day MA at $0.55 represents the next major hurdle. RSI readings at 42 suggest neutral momentum with room for either direction.
Bullish Invalidation Level: $0.45 (break below November support and FVG fill would invalidate accumulation thesis)
Bearish Invalidation Level: $0.55 (clear break above 200-day MA with volume would confirm trend reversal)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| OTC Transaction Value | $30 million |
| WLD Tokens Received | 60 million |
| Effective Price per WLD | $0.4843 |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 23/100 (Extreme Fear) |
| Bitcoin Price (Market Proxy) | $87,518 (-0.03% 24h) |
For institutional participants, this transaction demonstrates continued venture capital interest in biometric identity protocols despite regulatory headwinds. The OTC structure allows Multicoin to acquire a significant position without impacting public market prices, a tactic commonly employed during Ethereum's EIP-4844 implementation phase when large validators accumulated ETH off-exchange. For retail traders, the deal provides a potential liquidity anchor at the $0.48 level, though the concentration risk of large OTC holdings could create future selling pressure if unlocked. Market structure suggests such transactions often precede increased volatility as the accumulated position seeks exit liquidity.
Market analysts on X/Twitter have noted the transaction's timing during extreme fear conditions. One quantitative researcher observed, "Smart money accumulates when retail capitulates—this is classic behavioral finance in action." Another commented on the technical implications: "The $0.48 level now represents a psychological Order Block that will either hold as support or break as resistance." Sentiment remains divided between those viewing this as a bullish signal of institutional conviction and those concerned about concentration risk in a token facing regulatory uncertainty.
Bullish Case: If WLD holds above the $0.48 support and breaks through the $0.52 resistance with volume, the next target is the $0.60 Fibonacci extension level. Institutional accumulation at current prices could create a Gamma Squeeze scenario if retail FOMO returns amid improving market sentiment. Historical patterns from similar OTC deals in 2023 suggest potential for 40-60% moves within 30-60 days following such announcements.
Bearish Case: Failure to hold $0.48 support would likely trigger a Liquidity Grab down to $0.42, filling the FVG and testing the yearly low. Regulatory developments regarding biometric data collection could create additional headwinds, with the SEC's ongoing scrutiny of token classification potentially impacting WLD's legal status. In this scenario, the bearish invalidation level at $0.55 would remain untested, and the token could consolidate in a lower range between $0.40 and $0.50.
What is an OTC transaction in cryptocurrency? Over-the-counter transactions involve direct trades between parties without using public exchanges, typically for large amounts to avoid market impact.
Why would Multicoin Capital buy WLD during extreme fear? Institutional investors often accumulate during fear periods when prices are depressed and retail sentiment is negative, creating potential asymmetric returns.
How does this affect Worldcoin's token economics? Large OTC purchases from the treasury reduce circulating supply but concentrate ownership, potentially affecting future price discovery and liquidity.
What are the regulatory risks for Worldcoin? Worldcoin faces scrutiny over biometric data collection practices, with potential implications from data protection regulations like GDPR and evolving SEC token classification.
How can retail traders interpret this news?
Market structure suggests monitoring the $0.48 support and $0.52 resistance levels for confirmation of trend direction, while understanding that OTC deals don't guarantee public market performance.
Data source: Read Original Report
Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.
