[Analysis] Bitcoin Rally Stalls at $90k Resistance as US Demand Metrics Turn Negative

• Bitcoin's rally has stalled at the $90,000 short-term resistance level, with price action currently at $87,544.
• On-chain data indicates a sharp slowdown in US demand: BTC Real Demand indicator at -3,491 BTC (lowest since October 2024) and Coinbase Premium at -0.08.
• Market structure suggests bullish momentum requires reclaiming the $90,000-$92,000 range while holding support at $84,000.
• Technical analysis identifies $84,000 as Bearish Invalidation and $92,000 as Bullish Invalidation levels.

NEW YORK, December 29, 2025 — Bitcoin's upward momentum has encountered significant resistance at the $90,000 psychological barrier, with the daily crypto analysis revealing concerning deterioration in US investor demand metrics. According to data from Capriole Investments, the BTC Real Demand indicator has fallen to -3,491 BTC over the past two weeks, marking its lowest reading since October 2024 and signaling a pronounced deceleration in organic buying pressure. Simultaneously, the Coinbase Premium has declined to -0.08, indicating persistent selling pressure from US-based investors that continues to weigh on price action.

Market Context & Background

This current consolidation phase mirrors historical patterns where Bitcoin encounters significant resistance at round-number psychological levels. The $90,000 threshold represents not just a technical barrier but a liquidity concentration zone where previous order blocks have formed. Underlying this trend is the structural relationship between US institutional participation and Bitcoin's macro price trajectory. Historically, sustained rallies have correlated strongly with positive Coinbase Premium readings and expanding on-chain demand metrics from North American entities. The current negative readings suggest a potential liquidity grab is occurring, where larger players are accumulating at lower prices while retail sentiment remains in "Extreme Fear" territory with a score of 24/100. This creates a classic Fair Value Gap (FVG) between current prices and where organic demand would typically support valuation.

Related developments in the current market environment include: ongoing analysis of Federal Reserve policy impacts, divergence between whale accumulation and retail exits, and institutional liquidity movements that may be creating order blocks at key levels.

What Happened?

According to analysis by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's sustained rally into 2026 requires two concurrent developments: recovery in US investor demand and a decisive break above the $90,000 short-term resistance level. The data reveals a concerning divergence between price action and fundamental demand indicators. Capriole Investments' BTC Real Demand metric, which measures net Bitcoin accumulation by entities with demonstrated holding patterns, has declined to -3,491 BTC over the past fourteen days. This represents the most negative reading in over fourteen months and suggests institutional and high-net-worth investors are either distributing positions or pausing accumulation. Concurrently, the Coinbase Premium—which measures the price difference between Coinbase (primarily US traders) and Binance (global traders)—has dropped to -0.08, indicating US-based selling pressure exceeds buying interest. These metrics collectively point to weakening demand from what has historically been Bitcoin's most significant geographic market segment.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure suggests Bitcoin is currently testing a critical volume profile resistance zone between $88,000 and $90,000. The 50-day exponential moving average at $86,200 provides immediate support, while the 200-day simple moving average at $82,500 represents a more significant structural level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily timeframes sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum with slight bearish bias. A decisive break above $90,000 would invalidate the current bearish structure and potentially trigger a gamma squeeze as options positions are forced to re-hedge. Conversely, failure to hold the $84,000 support level would confirm distribution patterns observed in on-chain data. The Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing high to low shows key support at $82,800 (61.8% retracement), which aligns with the 200-day moving average and represents a critical technical confluence zone.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

The divergence between price action and demand metrics carries significant implications for both institutional and retail market participants. For institutions, negative real demand indicators suggest either profit-taking at resistance levels or strategic repositioning ahead of potential macroeconomic shifts. The Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on interest rates, particularly whether to maintain the current Fed Funds Rate target range, could substantially impact capital allocation decisions. For retail investors, the Extreme Fear sentiment reading of 24/100 typically precedes either capitulation events or accumulation opportunities, depending on whether support levels hold. The five-year horizon significance lies in whether current demand weakness represents temporary distribution or a more structural shift in US institutional adoption patterns. Historical analysis of previous cycles suggests that sustained negative real demand readings lasting multiple months often precede more significant corrections.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on social platforms have noted the divergence between whale accumulation patterns and retail exits. According to sentiment analysis of major trading communities, bulls point to historical precedents where Extreme Fear readings have marked local bottoms, particularly when coinciding with key technical support levels. Bears emphasize the deteriorating demand metrics and the failure to reclaim the $90,000 level despite multiple attempts. The consensus among quantitative analysts is that the current structure represents a high-probability inflection point where the next 5% move will likely determine the medium-term trend direction.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If Bitcoin can reclaim the $90,000-$92,000 range with accompanying volume expansion, market structure suggests a retest of all-time highs near $98,000 becomes probable. This scenario requires the Coinbase Premium to turn positive and the Real Demand indicator to show stabilization or improvement. The Bullish Invalidation level is $84,000—a break below this support would negate the bullish thesis and suggest distribution is ongoing.

Bearish Case: Failure to hold $84,000 support would likely trigger a test of the $82,000-$82,800 confluence zone (200-day MA and Fibonacci support). Continued negative demand metrics could extend the correction toward $78,000, where significant volume profile support exists. The Bearish Invalidation level is $92,000—a decisive break above this resistance would indicate demand has returned and the correction has concluded.

FAQs

What is the BTC Real Demand indicator? The BTC Real Demand indicator, developed by Capriole Investments, measures net Bitcoin accumulation by entities with demonstrated holding patterns, filtering out exchange flows and short-term trading activity to identify genuine investment demand.

Why is US investor demand important for Bitcoin? US investors represent the largest institutional and retail market segment for Bitcoin, with their capital flows significantly impacting liquidity, price discovery, and overall market structure. Positive demand from US entities has historically correlated with sustained bullish trends.

What does a negative Coinbase Premium indicate? A negative Coinbase Premium suggests Bitcoin is trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to other exchanges like Binance, typically indicating net selling pressure from US-based investors relative to global participants.

What are the key support and resistance levels for Bitcoin? Current key resistance is at $90,000, with secondary resistance at $92,000. Primary support sits at $84,000, with stronger support at the $82,000-$82,800 confluence zone (200-day MA and Fibonacci level).

How does the Fear & Greed Index impact Bitcoin price? Extreme Fear readings (below 25) often coincide with local bottoms when they align with technical support levels, as they indicate maximum pessimism and potential capitulation. However, they can also precede further declines if fundamental factors continue deteriorating.

Data source: Read Original Report

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.