[Analysis] Bitcoin Price Action Hinges on FOMC Minutes and Whale Accumulation

• FOMC December meeting minutes release could signal future interest rate trajectory, impacting Bitcoin's macro correlation.
• Large-scale investors on Bitfinex are expanding bullish BTC bets despite current price decline.
• Current BTC price correction is more gradual than previous cycles, suggesting structural maturity.
• Market structure indicates critical support at $85,000 with bearish invalidation at $92,000.

NEW YORK, December 29, 2025 — Bitcoin price action faces a week as three key factors converge: Federal Open Market Committee minutes, whale accumulation patterns, and a historically gradual correction. According to Cointelegraph, these elements will dictate near-term volatility for BTC, currently trading at $87,982 with a 24-hour change of 0.27%. Market sentiment remains in "Extreme Fear" territory at 24/100, creating a contrarian setup for institutional flows.

Market Context & Background

Bitcoin's current price action mirrors the 2021-2022 cycle but with reduced volatility. The 2021 bull run saw corrections of 30-50% within weeks, whereas the current decline from all-time highs has been more measured. This suggests increased market depth and reduced panic selling. Underlying this trend is the maturation of institutional participation, as evidenced by sustained ETF inflows despite regulatory headwinds. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets has strengthened post-2023, making macroeconomic data releases like FOMC minutes critical for price discovery. Consequently, traders are monitoring the 200-day moving average at $85,000 as a key psychological level, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2024 low.

What Happened?

Cointelegraph identified three specific catalysts for Bitcoin this week. First, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will release its December meeting minutes, which may offer clues on future interest rate direction. Second, large-scale investors on Bitfinex are expanding bullish BTC bets, indicating accumulation despite price weakness. Third, the current BTC price decline has been more gradual compared to previous market cycles, suggesting a shift in market structure. On-chain data from Glassnode shows whale addresses (holding 1,000+ BTC) have increased holdings by 2.3% over the past month, contrasting with retail outflows. This divergence creates a potential liquidity grab scenario where retail capitulation fuels institutional accumulation.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin is testing a critical order block between $86,500 and $88,000, established during the November rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 42, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bearish bias. Volume profile analysis shows high volume nodes at $85,000 and $90,000, defining immediate support and resistance. A break below $85,000 would invalidate the bullish structure and target the next support at $82,000, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Conversely, reclaiming $90,000 would fill the fair value gap (FVG) created during last week's sell-off. The 50-day moving average at $89,200 acts as dynamic resistance. Bullish invalidation is set at $85,000; a sustained close below this level suggests a deeper correction toward $80,000. Bearish invalidation is at $92,000; a break above this resistance would indicate resumption of the uptrend.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutions, the FOMC minutes provide insight into monetary policy trajectory, affecting Bitcoin's correlation with the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. A hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar, pressuring BTC, while dovish signals may fuel risk-on flows. The expansion of bullish bets by large investors signals confidence in long-term value, potentially stabilizing prices during retail sell-offs. For retail traders, the gradual correction reduces margin call risks but may prolong consolidation phases. The structural shift toward slower corrections indicates Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative asset to a macro hedge, similar to gold. This aligns with increasing adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by corporations and sovereign wealth funds, as documented by the SEC in recent filings.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter are divided. Bulls highlight the whale accumulation as a precursor to a gamma squeeze, where options market makers are forced to buy spot BTC to hedge positions. One trader noted, "The order flow on Bitfinex suggests smart money is accumulating at these levels, setting up a liquidity grab from retail sellers." Bears point to the extreme fear sentiment and potential for further downside if the FOMC minutes indicate prolonged high rates. Sentiment analysis tools show a 65% bearish bias among retail traders, contrasting with institutional net inflows of $120 million into Bitcoin ETFs this week.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If BTC holds above $85,000 and the FOMC minutes are perceived as dovish, a rally toward $95,000 is likely. Whale accumulation could trigger a short squeeze, pushing prices to test all-time highs. The gradual correction pattern supports a resilient uptrend, with a year-end target of $100,000.

Bearish Case: A break below $85,000 invalidates the bullish structure, targeting $80,000. Hawkish FOMC minutes could strengthen the dollar, causing BTC to test the $78,000 support level. Prolonged extreme fear sentiment may lead to a capitulation event, dragging prices to $75,000.

FAQs

What time are the FOMC minutes released?The FOMC December meeting minutes are scheduled for release at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday, January 1, 2026.

How does the Fear & Greed Index affect Bitcoin price?Extreme fear readings often coincide with market bottoms, as seen in March 2020 and June 2022, providing contrarian buy signals.

What is a fair value gap (FVG) in Bitcoin trading?A fair value gap is a price zone where inefficient trading occurred, often filled later. The current FVG for BTC is between $89,000 and $91,000.

Why are whale accumulation patterns important?Large investor activity often precedes major price moves, as seen before the 2024 rally where whale holdings increased 15% prior to a 40% surge.

What is the significance of the 200-day moving average for Bitcoin?The 200-day MA is a long-term trend indicator; holding above it suggests bullish momentum, while breaks below signal bearish trends.

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.