XRP Faces $0.80 Target as On-Chain Metrics Signal Liquidity Drain

VADODARA, December 30, 2025 — Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has projected XRP could decline to $0.80, citing deteriorating on-chain fundamentals and whale selling pressure. This latest crypto news emerges as the global crypto market sentiment registers "Extreme Fear" with a score of 23/100, creating a backdrop where technical breakdowns could accelerate.

Market Context & Background

XRP has historically exhibited volatility tied to regulatory developments and network activity metrics. The current warning mirrors patterns observed during the 2021-2022 bear market, where declining active addresses preceded significant price corrections across altcoins. Market structure suggests that when network participation contracts while large holders distribute, it often creates a Liquidity Grab scenario where price moves rapidly to absorb resting orders.

Related developments in this environment include predictions of altcoin mass extinction and challenges to bullish institutional theses, highlighting broader market skepticism.

What Happened?

According to on-chain data analysis shared by Ali Martinez, who has approximately 164,000 followers on X, daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have contracted from 46,000 to 38,500. This represents a 16.3% decline in network participation. Simultaneously, whale entities have offloaded more than $40 million in XRP over recent days, shifting from accumulation to distribution patterns.

Martinez concluded that continued downward pressure could cause XRP to lose its key support at $1.77, potentially triggering a decline toward $0.80. The current price sits at $1.87, representing a -0.15% 24-hour change while maintaining the #5 market rank by capitalization.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Market structure suggests XRP is testing a critical Order Block between $1.77 and $1.85. A breakdown below this zone would create a Fair Value Gap (FVG) extending toward the $0.80 target. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily timeframes shows weakening momentum, while the 50-day moving average has turned from support to resistance.

The Bullish Invalidation level is $1.77—a sustained break below this threshold would confirm the bearish thesis. The Bearish Invalidation level is $2.15—reclaiming this former resistance would negate the downward projection and suggest whale selling has been absorbed. Volume profile analysis indicates thin liquidity below $1.77, which could exacerbate any breakdown.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional investors, this analysis highlights the importance of on-chain metrics beyond price action. The contraction in active addresses suggests declining utility, which could impact long-term valuation models. Retail traders face increased risk of stop-loss cascades if the $1.77 support fails, particularly in an "Extreme Fear" market where liquidations amplify moves.

The situation raises questions about whether current network activity justifies XRP's $102 billion market capitalization. If the decline materializes, it could trigger broader altcoin weakness as capital rotates toward perceived safer assets like Bitcoin. Regulatory clarity from the SEC regarding XRP's status remains a persistent overhang, though recent court decisions have provided some framework.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter appear divided. Bulls point to XRP's established position and ongoing Ripple partnerships as fundamental strengths. One commentator noted, "Network metrics fluctuate—this could be temporary consolidation rather than breakdown." However, bears emphasize the technical deterioration, with one trader stating, "When whales sell and users leave, price follows. Simple math."

The skepticism extends to broader market conditions, where institutional options activity shows hedging against further downside. Regulatory developments like South Korea's proposed exchange caps add to the uncertain environment.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If XRP holds the $1.77 support and whale selling abates, a rebound toward $2.15 is plausible. Renewed network development or positive regulatory news could catalyze this move. Historical patterns indicate that "Extreme Fear" readings often precede relief rallies, though timing remains uncertain.

Bearish Case: Continued distribution by large holders and declining network activity could push XRP through $1.77, targeting $0.80. This would represent a 57% decline from current levels. In such a scenario, the next significant support aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the 2023 low to 2025 high, a common technical magnet during corrections.

FAQs

• What is the key support level for XRP? The critical support is $1.77. A sustained break below this level could trigger further declines.
• Why are active addresses important? Active addresses measure network participation. Declining activity suggests reduced utility, which often precedes price weakness.
• How reliable are whale tracking metrics? On-chain data provides objective evidence of large holder behavior, though interpretation requires context about market conditions.
• What is the Fear & Greed Index? This sentiment indicator aggregates volatility, market momentum, social media activity, and surveys to gauge market psychology.
• Could regulatory news change this outlook? Yes. Clear regulatory resolution from authorities like the SEC could significantly impact XRP's valuation regardless of technical factors.

Data source: Read Original Report

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.