US Treasury Probes Crypto Exchanges for Iran Sanctions Evasion

VADODARA, February 3, 2026 — The US Treasury Department is investigating cryptocurrency exchanges for allegedly facilitating Iranian sanctions evasion, according to a TRM Labs report. This latest crypto news reveals a strategic pivot from targeting individual wallets to scrutinizing exchange infrastructure itself. Market structure suggests this enforcement shift could trigger significant liquidity realignments.

Investigation: Infrastructure Under Scrutiny

TRM Labs, a blockchain intelligence firm, reported the Treasury's investigation. Ari Redbord, TRM Labs' head of global policy, confirmed the shift in focus. He stated the issue extends beyond sanctioned individuals using crypto. Sanctions evasion activity now concentrates within exchange systems. One identified case involves Zedcex, an exchange operating on infrastructure controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Zedcex processed approximately $1 billion in IRGC-linked funds. This amount constituted about 56% of the exchange's total trading volume. The proportion peaked at 87% in 2024. According to on-chain data, such concentrated volume creates identifiable liquidity patterns. These patterns resemble wash trading signatures observed in previous enforcement actions.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, US sanctions enforcement has followed a predictable escalation path. The 2021 crackdown on unlicensed money transmission set the initial precedent. Consequently, this infrastructure-focused probe represents a logical next phase. It mirrors the 2023 OFAC actions against mixers like Tornado Cash. In contrast, targeting exchanges directly impacts a far larger liquidity pool.

Underlying this trend is a clear regulatory maturation. The Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has consistently expanded its guidance. Similar to the 2021 correction, regulatory uncertainty is amplifying market fear. This is evident in the current Extreme Fear sentiment reading. Related developments in regulatory scrutiny include the US Senate's closed-door CLARITY Act meeting, which occurred amid similar market conditions.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Market structure suggests regulatory headlines create immediate Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) in price charts. Bitcoin's current price of $76,089 sits within a critical Order Block between $74,000 and $78,000. The 50-day moving average at $75,200 provides near-term dynamic support. , the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level at $74,000 acts as a major structural support.

Volume Profile analysis indicates thinning liquidity above $78,500. This creates a potential resistance zone. On-chain data from Glassnode shows exchange net outflows have increased by 15% week-over-week. This suggests institutional players are preemptively moving assets to cold storage. Such behavior typically precedes periods of regulatory volatility.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This investigation matters because it targets the plumbing of the crypto economy. Exchanges serve as critical liquidity hubs. Enforcement against them can fracture market structure. Institutional liquidity cycles depend on predictable compliance rails. A probe of this scale injects significant uncertainty. Retail market structure, already fragile, may see accelerated consolidation towards regulated venues.

Real-world evidence supports this. The $1 billion figure indicates systemic, not isolated, activity. When such a large proportion of an exchange's volume links to a sanctioned entity, it suggests weak or complicit controls. This validates regulators' long-held concerns about the industry's anti-money laundering (AML) posture. The impact extends beyond Zedcex. Other exchanges with similar volume concentrations will likely face intensified scrutiny.

Expert Commentary

"The Treasury's pivot from wallets to infrastructure is a watershed moment. It moves the enforcement goalposts from individual bad actors to the platforms that enable them. This will force a fundamental reassessment of compliance overhead and geographic risk exposure across the sector. Exchanges operating in jurisdictional gray zones are now directly in the crosshairs." – CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Two primary technical scenarios emerge from current market structure. The first scenario involves a containment of regulatory fear. Price holds above the $74,000 weekly support and grinds higher to test the $78,500 liquidity zone. The second scenario involves a breakdown. Regulatory headlines trigger a liquidity grab below key support, targeting the next significant Order Block near $70,000.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $78,500. A sustained break above this volume profile resistance would invalidate the immediate bearish structure and suggest the market has discounted the regulatory overhang.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $74,000. A weekly close below this Fibonacci and horizontal support level would confirm a breakdown, opening the path for a deeper correction toward $70,000.

The 12-month institutional outlook now incorporates higher regulatory risk premiums. This aligns with the 5-year horizon where regulatory clarity is a prerequisite for mainstream adoption. Expect increased due diligence on exchange partners and a flight to quality toward jurisdictions with clear compliance frameworks. The probe may accelerate the institutional shift towards regulated crypto ETFs and custodians as safer alternatives.