Tiger Research: Current Crypto Downturn Not a True 'Crypto Winter'

VADODARA, February 4, 2026 — The latest crypto news from Asian Web3 research firm Tiger Research challenges prevailing market narratives. Their report, "2026 Is It Crypto Winter Now? Market Changes After Regulation," asserts the current downturn lacks the hallmarks of a true crypto winter. Market structure suggests this is a macro-driven liquidity grab, not an industry collapse.

Investigation: Dissecting the 'Crypto Winter' Thesis

According to Tiger Research's primary analysis, three historical crypto winters followed a consistent pattern. A major internal incident triggered a collapse in trust. This caused a subsequent talent exodus from the industry. The firm's report explicitly states the current downturn differs fundamentally. External factors, not internal failures, drove the October 10 liquidation event. This distinction is critical for market prognosis.

Consequently, the industry has not collapsed. Regulatory clarity is improving globally. This creates conditions for the next institutional cycle. Tiger Research's conclusion is surgical. A "crypto season" where all assets rise uniformly is unlikely. The next bull run will come but will not benefit every participant. This aligns with a maturing market structure where capital flows selectively.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, true crypto winters like 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 featured internal catalysts. The ICO bust and FTX collapse eroded trust from within. In contrast, the 2021 correction was primarily a macro liquidity event. Similar to the 2021 correction, the current drawdown correlates with Federal Reserve policy shifts. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance remains a dominant external variable.

Underlying this trend is a shift in market maturity. The 2022 bear market flushed out weak leverage. Current sell-pressure appears more technical than fundamental. This context is vital for interpreting price action. It separates noise from signal in a fearful market.

Related Regulatory Developments

This analysis intersects with broader regulatory shifts affecting capital flows. For instance, recent corporate crypto rules in South Korea are creating localized uncertainty. Meanwhile, Kraken's $2.2 billion revenue surge signals deepening institutional participation despite the downturn.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

On-chain data indicates a divergence between price and network health. Bitcoin's hash rate remains near all-time highs. Ethereum's post-merge issuance stays negative. These are not winter metrics. Price action tells a different story. Bitcoin faces a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $78,500 and $81,200. This zone represents a liquidity void from the October event.

Market structure suggests the current sell-off is testing a major Order Block. The weekly Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level at $74,200 aligns with the 2024 cycle's volume profile point of control. A hold here would confirm the Tiger Research thesis. A break would signal deeper technical damage. The 50-day moving average at $79,800 acts as dynamic resistance.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This report matters for portfolio construction. Mislabeling a macro correction as a crypto winter leads to poor allocation decisions. Historical cycles suggest true winters last 18-24 months and destroy fundamental value. The current downturn is 4 months old. Its trigger was an external Gamma Squeeze in derivatives, not a broken business model.

, regulatory clarity is a net positive long-term. It reduces existential risk premiums. Institutions require clear rules before deploying capital at scale. The report identifies two conditions for the next bull run. A new killer use case must emerge from unregulated sectors like DePIN or AI agents. The macroeconomic environment must also shift to favor risk assets. Both are plausible within a 12-month horizon.

Expert Commentary

"The distinction between internal and external triggers is not semantic. It's foundational for forecasting. An industry that breaks itself takes years to rebuild. A market shaken by external macro forces can recover as those forces abate. Our liquidity maps show institutional accumulation continuing beneath retail panic." – CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Market structure suggests two primary scenarios based on the $74,200 weekly Fibonacci level.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $81,200. A daily close above this Fair Value Gap high would invalidate the bearish structure and target a retest of the $84,000 resistance cluster.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $74,200. A sustained break below this weekly Fibonacci support would confirm a deeper correction, potentially targeting the $68,500 volume node.

The 12-month institutional outlook remains cautiously constructive. Regulatory progress, like the finalization of frameworks such as South Korea's Digital Asset Act, removes systemic uncertainty. However, the path will be selective. Capital will flow to protocols with proven utility, not mere speculation. This aligns with a maturation phase, not a winter.