[Analysis] Key Financial Events This Week: FOMC Minutes, Jobless Claims to Test Bitcoin's $87k Support

• FOMC meeting minutes release on December 30 could reveal hawkish sentiment, testing Bitcoin's $87,858 support level.
• Initial jobless claims and Manufacturing PMI data on December 31-January 2 will provide critical liquidity signals for crypto markets.
• Global crypto sentiment at "Extreme Fear" (24/100) creates potential for a liquidity grab if traditional markets react negatively.
• Market structure suggests Bitcoin must hold above $85,000 to maintain bullish momentum into 2026.

NEW YORK, December 29, 2025 — This week's slate of key financial events, including FOMC meeting minutes and critical economic data, presents a significant test for cryptocurrency markets already trading in extreme fear territory. The latest crypto news centers on how Bitcoin's current $87,858 price level will respond to traditional market signals that have historically triggered volatility in digital assets.

Market Context & Background

Market structure suggests this week's events mirror the December 2021 pattern when FOMC minutes revealed accelerated tapering plans, triggering a 15% Bitcoin correction. Similar to that period, current positioning shows institutional investors have built substantial short positions in Bitcoin futures, creating potential for a gamma squeeze if price action breaks above key resistance levels. The Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rates, particularly the Fed Funds Rate target range of 5.25%-5.50%, represents the highest level since 2007, creating persistent headwinds for risk assets. Historical analysis indicates that when the Crypto Fear & Greed Index drops below 30 while traditional markets face monetary policy uncertainty, Bitcoin typically experiences increased correlation with Nasdaq futures, currently trading at 0.78 correlation coefficient.

Related developments in the cryptocurrency space include recent analysis of market structure tests through token distributions and partnerships. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index holding at 24 indicates persistent risk aversion, while stablecoin market structure is being tested through initiatives like the BC Card-Coinbase USDC partnership in South Korea. Additional market structure tests include Hyperliquid's 1.2M HYPE token distribution and World Liberty Financial's 5% token allocation.

What Happened?

According to the economic calendar, three key events will unfold between December 30 and January 2. On December 30 at 7:00 p.m. UTC, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will release minutes from its December meeting. Market analysts anticipate these minutes may reveal discussions about maintaining restrictive policy longer than previously expected. The following day at 1:30 p.m. UTC, initial jobless claims data will provide insight into labor market strength. January 1 sees major stock markets closed for New Year's Day, creating potential liquidity gaps. Finally, on January 2 at 2:45 p.m. UTC, the U.S. December Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index will be released, with consensus estimates pointing to 48.5, indicating contraction.

These events coincide with Bitcoin trading at $87,858, representing a 0.11% gain over 24 hours but remaining 8.3% below its all-time high of $95,783 set earlier this month. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 24/100, firmly in "Extreme Fear" territory according to data from Alternative.me. This sentiment reading suggests retail investors have largely exited positions, leaving the market dominated by institutional flows that are more sensitive to macroeconomic signals.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Volume profile analysis indicates significant accumulation between $85,000 and $87,000, creating a strong support zone. The 200-day moving average at $84,250 provides additional technical support. Resistance levels cluster around $90,500 (50-day MA) and $92,000 (previous swing high). Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum with room for movement in either direction.

A clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists between $88,500 and $89,200 from last week's price action, which market structure suggests will likely be filled before any sustained move higher. The current order block formed between December 26-28 around $86,800 represents critical support that must hold to maintain bullish structure. Fibonacci retracement levels from the November low to December high show key support at $85,200 (0.382 level) and $82,500 (0.618 level).

Bullish invalidation level: $84,250 (break below 200-day MA would signal structural breakdown). Bearish invalidation level: $90,500 (sustained break above 50-day MA would indicate momentum shift).

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional investors, this week's events represent a critical test of Bitcoin's decoupling thesis. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), hedge funds have increased their net short positions in Bitcoin futures by 34% over the past month, suggesting expectations of further downside. A hawkish tone in FOMC minutes could validate this positioning, triggering stop-loss cascades below key support levels. For retail traders, the extreme fear sentiment creates potential for contrarian opportunities if the market overreacts to economic data.

The Manufacturing PMI data carries particular significance given its correlation with industrial commodity prices, which have shown increasing correlation with Bitcoin since 2023. A reading below 48.0 would signal deeper contraction than expected, potentially pushing the Federal Reserve toward earlier rate cuts despite their current rhetoric. Historical patterns indicate that when PMI data surprises to the downside during periods of extreme fear sentiment, Bitcoin typically experiences a 48-hour lagged reaction as institutional capital reallocates.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on social platforms express cautious optimism tempered by macroeconomic concerns. "The FOMC minutes will likely reveal continued focus on inflation persistence," noted one quantitative researcher. "This creates headwinds for all risk assets, but Bitcoin's fixed supply narrative could provide relative strength if traditional markets weaken." Another analyst pointed to technical factors: "The $85k-$87k support zone represents a major liquidity pool. A break below would trigger significant option-related selling pressure due to gamma exposure."

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If FOMC minutes show dovish undertones and jobless claims exceed expectations, Bitcoin could rally to fill the FVG at $89,200 before testing resistance at $90,500. Sustained break above this level would target $92,000 by mid-January. This scenario assumes Manufacturing PMI surprises to the upside, providing fundamental support for risk assets.

Bearish Case: Hawkish FOMC rhetoric combined with strong jobless claims data could push Bitcoin below the $85,000 support zone, targeting the 200-day MA at $84,250. Break below this level would open path to $82,500 Fibonacci support. This scenario would likely coincide with increased correlation to traditional markets and potential liquidation events in leveraged positions.

FAQs

What time are the FOMC minutes released? The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be released on December 30 at 7:00 p.m. UTC (2:00 p.m. EST).

How does jobless claims data affect cryptocurrency prices? Strong jobless claims (lower than expected) typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase expectations of sustained higher interest rates, creating headwinds for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

What is the current Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading? The index sits at 24/100, indicating "Extreme Fear" sentiment according to the latest data from Alternative.me.

What are key Bitcoin support levels to watch? Critical support levels include $87,000 (volume profile), $85,200 (Fibonacci 0.382), and $84,250 (200-day moving average).

Where can I find official FOMC documents and data? The Federal Reserve publishes all official statements, minutes, and economic projections on their website at FederalReserve.gov.

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.