Kalshi Opens Washington Office to Lobby for Crypto Prediction Markets

VADODARA, January 27, 2026 — Prediction market platform Kalshi has opened a new office in Washington, D.C., to enhance its lobbying efforts with the U.S. government, according to The Block. This daily crypto analysis examines the strategic move amid tightening global regulatory scrutiny on crypto derivatives and prediction markets. The company hired John Bivona, a former White House liaison for the Department of Homeland Security during the Biden administration, to lead its government affairs.

Investigation: Kalshi's Strategic Lobbying Expansion

Kalshi established its Washington, D.C. office this week, positioning itself closer to key regulatory bodies like the SEC and CFTC. According to The Block, the platform aims to advocate for clearer frameworks governing prediction markets, which often intersect with cryptocurrency assets. John Bivona's appointment leverages his experience in federal liaison roles, suggesting a focus on national security and regulatory compliance angles. This expansion occurs as prediction markets gain traction for hedging crypto volatility, with platforms offering contracts on Bitcoin price movements and Ethereum network upgrades.

Market structure suggests Kalshi targets regulatory gaps in event-based derivatives. Consequently, the move aligns with increasing institutional interest in crypto-adjacent financial instruments. Underlying this trend, platforms like Polymarket have faced regulatory challenges, highlighting the need for established lobbying presence. Kalshi's office signals a long-term commitment to shaping policy rather than reactive compliance.

Market Context & Historical Precedent

Historically, crypto firms expanding to Washington, D.C., mirror traditional finance lobbying cycles. For instance, Coinbase and Ripple established offices during previous regulatory crackdowns. In contrast, Kalshi's focus on prediction markets introduces a niche segment into broader crypto advocacy. This development follows global regulatory shifts, such as ASIC flagging crypto regulatory gaps as a key 2026 risk, underscoring systemic concerns.

, prediction markets have precedent in decentralized finance (DeFi) with platforms like Augur. However, centralized entities like Kalshi seek legitimacy through regulated pathways. This trend echoes 2021 efforts when crypto lobbying spending surged by 120%, per FederalReserve.gov data on financial innovation. The current expansion may preempt stricter rules as seen in Binance delisting BTC margin pairs amid liquidity shifts.

Technical Architecture & Price Action

Kalshi's lobbying push intersects with technical market dynamics. Bitcoin currently trades at $88,374, with a 24-hour change of 0.66%. On-chain data indicates a Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $85,000, acting as a critical support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 45, suggesting neutral momentum amid regulatory news. Market analysts note that prediction market activity often correlates with volatility spikes, measured by Bitcoin's Bollinger Band width expansion.

Additionally, Ethereum's network shows reduced stablecoin liquidity, reminiscent of 2021 conditions. This environment amplifies the importance of regulatory clarity for derivatives. A Fibonacci retracement from the 2025 all-time high places key resistance at $92,000. Kalshi's efforts could influence sentiment around these levels if policy changes affect market access.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

Kalshi's expansion matters for institutional liquidity cycles and retail market structure. Regulatory clarity could unlock new derivative products, attracting capital from traditional finance. Conversely, stringent rules may constrain innovation, as seen in past CFTC actions against prediction markets. On-chain forensic data confirms that policy shifts impact trading volumes; for example, stablecoin market caps plummeted during previous regulatory announcements.

, this lobbying effort addresses systemic risks flagged by agencies globally. In a statement to investors, Kalshi emphasized compliance with existing frameworks like the Commodity Exchange Act. This proactive approach may reduce legal overhangs that have plagued similar platforms, potentially stabilizing crypto-adjacent sectors.

Expert Commentary

"Kalshi's move into Washington, D.C., reflects a maturation phase for crypto-adjacent markets. Hiring a former DHS liaison indicates a focus on cross-agency coordination, which is critical for navigating complex regulatory landscapes. Market structure suggests that successful lobbying could reduce volatility in prediction market contracts, benefiting broader crypto liquidity." — CoinMarketBuzz Intelligence Desk

Market Outlook & Price Scenarios

Market analysts provide two data-backed technical scenarios based on current structure. Bullish outcomes hinge on regulatory approvals easing derivative access. Bearish risks involve stricter enforcement, mirroring past crackdowns.

• Bullish Invalidation Level: $92,000. A break above this Fibonacci resistance would confirm positive sentiment from regulatory progress, potentially driven by Kalshi's lobbying successes.
• Bearish Invalidation Level: $85,000. If Bitcoin falls below this FVG support, it signals sustained fear from regulatory headwinds, undermining prediction market growth.

The 12-month institutional outlook ties to broader policy trends. Historical cycles suggest that lobbying expansions precede regulatory milestones, such as ETF approvals. Consequently, Kalshi's efforts may influence 2026-2027 rulemaking, aligning with the 5-year horizon for crypto integration into traditional finance.