Daily Crypto Analysis: 84.7% of 2025 Token Launches Trade Below Listing Price

• 84.7% of 2025 Token Generation Events (TGEs) trade below initial listing price
• Median Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) has dropped 71% from TGE levels
• Only 15% of 2025 token projects have generated positive returns
• Market structure suggests TGEs no longer represent reliable early investment opportunities

NEW YORK, December 20, 2025 — The 2025 market for Token Generation Events (TGEs) has demonstrated catastrophic underperformance, with 84.7% of newly launched tokens trading below their initial listing prices according to Memento Research analysis. This daily crypto analysis reveals structural weaknesses in token launch mechanisms that contradict bullish narratives about market maturation.

Market Context & Background

Market structure suggests this underperformance represents a continuation of post-2021 correction patterns rather than an anomaly. The current environment mirrors the 2018-2019 period when 78% of ICOs failed to maintain listing prices, though the 2025 data shows even more severe deterioration. The Federal Reserve's continued quantitative tightening through 2024-2025 has created persistent liquidity headwinds for speculative assets, with the Fed Funds Rate remaining elevated at 5.25-5.50% through most of 2025. This monetary policy backdrop has created what technical analysts would identify as a sustained Fair Value Gap (FVG) between token valuations and underlying fundamentals.

Related developments in the market include dilution concerns emerging from recent shareholder meetings and leadership shifts at major traditional institutions that may be influencing capital allocation decisions away from speculative crypto assets.

What Happened?

According to analysis by Ash at Memento Research, 100 of 118 tokens that conducted TGEs in 2025 now trade with Fully Diluted Valuations (FDV) below their initial listing levels. The median FDV has collapsed by 71% from TGE benchmarks, while median market capitalization has declined 67%. Only 18 projects (approximately 15%) have generated positive returns since launch. These metrics indicate systemic failure rather than isolated underperformance.

The data contradicts narratives about "quality over quantity" in token launches. Even projects with substantial venture backing and technical roadmaps have failed to maintain valuation levels, suggesting market mechanisms rather than project fundamentals are driving price action. This represents what quantitative analysts would identify as a breakdown in price discovery mechanisms for newly launched assets.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

On-chain data indicates severe distribution patterns across newly launched tokens, with exchange inflows consistently outpacing outflows by approximately 3:1 ratios in the 30 days post-TGE. The Volume Profile for most 2025 launches shows concentrated selling at initial listing prices, creating what technical analysts would identify as a persistent Order Block of resistance.

For Bitcoin as a market proxy, critical support rests at the $82,000 Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level from the 2024 highs. The 200-day moving average at $85,400 represents immediate resistance. RSI readings across major tokens remain in bearish territory below 45, indicating continued selling pressure without oversold conditions that might trigger mean reversion.

Bullish Invalidation Level: A sustained break below $82,000 on weekly closing basis would invalidate any near-term recovery thesis for the broader market. Bearish Invalidation Level: A decisive move above the 200-day moving average at $85,400 with accompanying volume would challenge the current distribution narrative.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutional investors, this data validates concerns about token launch mechanisms creating immediate overhang rather than sustainable value creation. The 71% median FDV decline suggests initial valuations bear little relationship to fundamental metrics, creating what quantitative analysts would identify as a persistent Gamma Squeeze scenario where early investors are forced to liquidate positions to meet margin requirements.

For retail participants, the implications are more severe. The narrative of "getting in early" on token launches has been systematically invalidated by 2025 performance data. Only 15% success rate indicates random selection would yield better outcomes than most due diligence processes. This creates structural disadvantages for retail capital relative to venture firms with preferential terms and earlier access.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter have expressed skepticism about the sustainability of current token launch models. "The data confirms what we've observed anecdotally - most 2025 launches have been liquidity extraction events rather than value creation," noted one quantitative researcher. Another analyst commented, "With 85% failure rates, the expected value of participating in TGEs has turned negative even before accounting for opportunity costs."

The sentiment contrasts sharply with official narratives about market maturation. While project teams continue to emphasize technological roadmaps and partnership announcements, price action suggests market participants are discounting these factors in favor of liquidity considerations and macro headwinds.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If Bitcoin maintains support at $82,000 and begins to absorb selling pressure through accumulation patterns, we could see selective recovery in higher-quality 2025 launches. Projects with genuine utility and sustainable tokenomics might decouple from the broader underperformance, particularly if the Federal Reserve signals policy pivot in early 2026. A break above $85,400 resistance would signal potential rotation into altcoins.

Bearish Case: Continued distribution patterns suggest most 2025 tokens could face additional 30-50% downside from current levels. The 71% median FDV decline may represent only the initial phase of valuation normalization. If Bitcoin breaks $82,000 support, we could see accelerated selling across newly launched tokens as margin calls trigger forced liquidations. This would create what technical analysts identify as a cascading Liquidity Grab scenario.

FAQs

What percentage of 2025 token launches are trading below their listing price? 84.7% of 2025 Token Generation Events (100 of 118 tokens) currently trade below their initial listing price according to Memento Research data.

How much has the median FDV declined for 2025 token launches? The median Fully Diluted Valuation has dropped 71% from TGE levels, indicating severe valuation compression across newly launched tokens.

What does this mean for investors considering new token launches? Market structure suggests TGEs no longer represent reliable early investment opportunities, with only 15% of 2025 projects generating positive returns since launch.

How does Bitcoin's price action relate to new token performance? Bitcoin serves as a market proxy and liquidity benchmark. Its ability to hold $82,000 Fibonacci support will influence whether capital rotates into or away from newly launched tokens.

Are there any technical indicators suggesting potential recovery? RSI readings remain in bearish territory below 45 without oversold conditions, while volume profiles show persistent selling pressure at initial listing prices across most 2025 launches.

Data source: Read Original Report

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.