[Analysis] Crypto to Stabilize in 2025 Despite Potential Price Declines

• Cantor Fitzgerald projects crypto stabilization in 2025, driven by institutional adoption and infrastructure growth.
• Bitcoin currently trades at $87,729 with a 24-hour decline of -0.16%, amid extreme fear sentiment.
• Market structure suggests potential price declines based on halving cycle theory, but without past-scale liquidations.
• Bullish invalidation: $82,000 (Fibonacci 0.618 support). Bearish invalidation: $95,000 (resistance zone).

NEW YORK, December 29, 2025 — Financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald projects the cryptocurrency industry will enter a more stable, institution-focused phase in 2025, even if Bitcoin faces a bear market. This latest crypto news comes as Bitcoin trades at $87,729, with global sentiment in extreme fear territory. Market structure suggests a potential downturn based on the four-year halving cycle, but analysts anticipate resilience due to fundamental improvements.

Market Context & Background

The crypto market has historically cycled through volatile boom-bust phases. The 2022-2023 period saw significant liquidations and structural failures, including the collapse of several centralized exchanges. Current conditions mirror pre-halving consolidation patterns observed in 2019 and 2023. However, institutional participation has deepened since then, with spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and growing corporate treasury allocations. Regulatory clarity, particularly from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has evolved, though challenges persist. Related developments include U.S. stock indexes opening lower amid extreme fear and large ETH withdrawals from exchanges, indicating cautious capital movement.

What Happened?

On December 29, 2025, Cantor Fitzgerald released an analysis stating the cryptocurrency industry is poised for stabilization. The firm noted the market appears at the start of a downturn based on the four-year halving cycle theory. It does not anticipate large-scale liquidations or structural failures seen in past cycles. Key factors include institutional investor entry, growth in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and decentralized exchanges (DEX), and fundamental improvements from a changing U.S.-centric regulatory environment. The projection emphasizes infrastructure strengthening and institutional adoption solidification, even if prices do not rally next year.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Bitcoin currently trades at $87,729, down -0.16% in 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 45, indicating neutral momentum with a bearish bias. The 50-day moving average sits at $89,200, acting as immediate resistance. Volume profile analysis shows significant accumulation between $85,000 and $90,000, suggesting a liquidity zone. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) exists from $92,000 to $94,000, which may act as a magnet for price action. The four-year halving cycle theory points to potential declines, but on-chain data indicates reduced selling pressure from long-term holders. Bullish invalidation level: $82,000 (Fibonacci 0.618 support from the 2024 low). Bearish invalidation level: $95,000 (resistance zone from previous order blocks).

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutions, this signals reduced systemic risk and enhanced regulatory predictability, encouraging further capital deployment into crypto assets and infrastructure. Real-world asset tokenization and DEX growth could drive efficiency gains in traditional finance. For retail investors, stabilization may reduce volatility but limit short-term speculative gains. The shift toward institution-focused phases aligns with broader financialization trends, similar to the adoption of derivatives in equity markets. This evolution supports long-term viability, potentially increasing crypto's correlation with macro indicators like the Fed Funds Rate.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter express cautious optimism. One noted, "Institutional inflows are changing the game—liquidity is deeper, even in fear zones." Another highlighted, "RWA tokenization is the silent catalyst; it's not about price, it's about utility." Bears point to the halving cycle theory, warning of a potential 20-30% correction if key supports break. Overall, sentiment leans toward structural resilience over price appreciation, with many echoing Cantor Fitzgerald's infrastructure focus.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: Institutional adoption accelerates, driving Bitcoin to retest $100,000 by mid-2025. RWA and DEX sectors outperform, lifting altcoins. Regulatory clarity improves, reducing uncertainty. Bullish invalidation: $82,000.

Bearish Case: Halving cycle theory manifests, pushing Bitcoin toward $70,000. Extreme fear sentiment persists, triggering retail capitulation. Macroeconomic headwinds, such as rising interest rates, pressure risk assets. Bearish invalidation: $95,000.

FAQs

What is the four-year halving cycle theory? It suggests Bitcoin experiences price cycles around its halving events, often with a downturn in the year following a halving.

How does institutional adoption stabilize crypto? Institutions bring long-term capital, improved infrastructure, and regulatory engagement, reducing volatility and systemic risks.

What is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization? It involves representing physical assets like real estate or commodities as digital tokens on blockchain, enhancing liquidity and accessibility.

Why is global crypto sentiment in extreme fear? Factors include price declines, regulatory uncertainties, and macroeconomic pressures, measured by metrics like volatility and social media activity.

What are key supports for Bitcoin? Critical levels include $85,000 (volume profile) and $82,000 (Fibonacci support), with breaks potentially signaling deeper corrections.

Data source: Read Original Report

Source Note: Market data and factual reporting in this article are sourced from original reports. Commentary and analysis provided by CoinMarketBuzz.