Analyst Michaël van de Poppe Sees Altcoins in 'End Stage' Bear Market, Turns Bullish Amid Bitcoin Stability

VADODARA, April 18, 2026. The following report is based on currently available verified source material and market data.

Hook paragraph

Data summary

Concrete metrics underscore the altcoin bear market and Bitcoin's relative strength. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index sits at 37/100, down from 34 a week ago and 53 a month ago, indicating fading momentum and a clear Bitcoin-dominated phase. According to van de Poppe, most altcoins are down more than 90% from their peaks, a figure derived from public statements. Bitcoin, in contrast, shows resilience with a current price of $77,095 and a 24-hour trend of 2.84%, as per CoinGecko data. The global crypto sentiment is "Fear" with a score of 26/100, reflecting overall market caution. Source: CoinGecko for Bitcoin metrics; Source: public statement for altcoin decline data.

Why it matters

Why now? The significance stems from the altcoin market approaching what van de Poppe calls the "end stage" of its bear cycle, with Bitcoin likely having bottomed and macro shifts like lower volatility in gold and oil potentially supporting risk assets. This contextual shift occurs amid historically low altcoin sentiment, creating a setup for accumulation. Who benefits? Accumulators and long-term investors stand to gain if altcoins rebound, while short-term traders may face continued volatility; Bitcoin holders benefit from stability, and retail investors could see opportunities if sentiment reverses. Time horizons: Short-term, altcoins may lag Bitcoin with tight liquidity, but longer-term, a cycle shift could trigger explosive moves as capital rotates from Bitcoin to altcoins. Causal chain: Van de Poppe argues that Bitcoin bottoming reduces downside risk → macro confidence improves → altcoin sentiment recovers from extreme lows → accumulation phases lead to price appreciation as liquidity returns.

Mechanism Breakdown

The underlying mechanism hinges on market psychology and liquidity flows. Altcoins have declined over 90% due to inflated valuations post-hype, leading to underpricing as sentiment hits lows. Van de Poppe sees this as a classic accumulation phase where disinterest signals a bottom rather than further decline. Mechanically, Bitcoin's stability acts as an anchor: once Bitcoin bottoms and shows strength, it reduces systemic risk, allowing altcoins to follow with a lag. Benjamin Cowen adds that altcoins struggled because Bitcoin topped without retail euphoria, preventing capital rotation into altcoins. This creates a liquidity vacuum where few sellers remain, setting the stage for violent moves upward if buying pressure resumes. The process involves sentiment recovery → increased risk appetite → capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins → price discovery accelerates in thin markets.

Industry comparison

Compared to adjacent developments, the altcoin bear market contrasts with Bitcoin's resilience and broader crypto trends. While Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption have supported Bitcoin's price, altcoins face unique challenges like regulatory uncertainty and project failures. The analysis aligns with observations from other sectors, such as DeFi and NFTs, which also experienced steep declines. Key comparisons include:

• Bitcoin dominance: The Altcoin Season Index at 37/100 shows Bitcoin outperforming, similar to past cycles where Bitcoin led before altcoin seasons.
• Macro influences: Lower volatility in traditional assets like gold and oil, as noted by van de Poppe, mirrors risk-on shifts that historically benefit crypto.
• Sentiment metrics: Global crypto fear at 26/100 indicates widespread caution, impacting altcoins more due to higher risk profiles.

Risks & Counterpoints

The bearish scenario presents several risks that could invalidate the bullish narrative. Uncertainty remains high due to missing data on specific altcoin metrics and broader market conditions. Key risks include:

• Liquidity constraints: Tight macro liquidity and risk-off backdrops, as highlighted by Benjamin Cowen, may persist, preventing capital rotation into altcoins and prolonging the bear market.
• Sentiment failure: If altcoin sentiment does not recover from current lows, accumulation phases could lead to further declines rather than reversals, breaking the assumed mechanism of sentiment-driven rebounds.
• Bitcoin volatility: Bitcoin's stability is not guaranteed; a renewed downturn could drag altcoins lower, undermining the premise that Bitcoin has bottomed.

Future implications

Practical near-term implications focus on market behavior and investor strategies. If van de Poppe's analysis holds, traders might accumulate select altcoins at depressed levels, anticipating a cycle shift. Bitcoin's role as a benchmark will likely remain critical, with altcoin performance tied to Bitcoin's trajectory. Market participants should monitor the Altcoin Season Index for signs of improvement, alongside macro indicators like equity volatility and commodity prices. In the coming months, watch for increased altcoin volume and sentiment shifts as potential early signals of a broader rally.

Background

Historically, altcoin seasons have followed Bitcoin peaks with retail euphoria, as seen in 2017 and 2021. The current cycle diverges because Bitcoin topped without hype, leading to a lack of capital rotation into altcoins. This structural framing explains why altcoins have lagged and why analysts like van de Poppe view the current phase as an accumulation opportunity rather than a continuation of the bear trend.

Related Developments

Cross-market reactions and related trends provide additional context. Notably, XRP recently led majors with 8% weekly outperformance, indicating selective strength in altcoins amid broader weakness. Other developments, such as regulatory shifts or project upgrades, may influence altcoin sentiment but are not directly addressed in the source data. For instance, strategies to boost liquidity in specific tokens or educational initiatives on stablecoins could indirectly support altcoin ecosystems.

Conclusion

Key takeaways include van de Poppe's bullish turn on altcoins at what he terms the "end stage" of their bear market, supported by extreme declines and low sentiment. Bitcoin's relative stability offers a foundation, but risks around liquidity and macro conditions remain. The Altcoin Season Index and sentiment metrics will be critical to watch for confirmation of a cycle shift.

Final line

Traders and analysts are closely watching the Altcoin Season Index and sentiment shifts for signs that the accumulation phase may transition into a broader altcoin rally, with Bitcoin's price action serving as a key bellwether.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the core update in this report?

This article tracks Altcoins in “End Stage” Bear Market? Analyst Michaël van de Poppe Turns Bullish. The latest timestamped reference is: Why Altcoins Didn’t Run Earlier Meanwhile, Benjamin Cowen provides a bigger outlook on why altcoins struggled in the first place..

Which data points matter most right now?

Key references currently highlighted are 90% and $77,095. If additional validated figures emerge, coverage will be updated.

How should readers interpret this in market context?

The practical impact depends on confirmation quality, liquidity reaction, and whether follow-up disclosures reinforce the initial report.

What timeline checkpoints should be monitored next?

Watch for follow-up milestones linked to: Why Altcoins Didn’t Run Earlier Meanwhile, Benjamin Cowen provides a bigger outlook on why altcoins struggled in the first place..

Where is the primary source for this update?

Primary source reference: https://coinpedia.org/news/altcoins-in-end-stage-bear-market-analyst-michael-van-de-poppe-turns-bullish.