Aave Founder's Revenue Share Plan Faces Centralization Scrutiny

VADODARA, January 3, 2026 — Stani Kulechov, founder of the Aave lending protocol, announced that future non-protocol revenue will be shared with AAVE token holders, a move that requires daily crypto analysis to assess its structural implications. According to the official statement, this follows a failed governance proposal that would have made Aave Labs a subsidiary of the Aave DAO, with Kulechov's large AAVE purchase during the vote raising centralization concerns. Market structure suggests this announcement attempts to address governance friction while expanding revenue streams beyond core DeFi operations.

Market Context & Background

The DeFi sector faces increasing pressure to demonstrate sustainable value capture beyond speculative trading. Aave's current protocol revenue model relies primarily on lending fees, which are subject to market cycles and competitive pressures. The failed governance proposal, which would have transferred Aave Labs' intellectual property and equity to the DAO, indicates significant community resistance to centralized control. Historical cycles suggest that protocol founders accumulating voting power often precedes governance capture events, as seen in earlier DeFi experiments. This development occurs amid broader market uncertainty, where external liquidity events can create Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) that distort token valuations.

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What Happened?

On January 3, 2026, Stani Kulechov disclosed that Aave Labs will share revenue from external business ventures with AAVE holders. According to the announcement, these ventures include real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, institutional lending, and consumer financial products. Kulechov argued that direct DAO funding for such initiatives would be inefficient, proposing instead to foster teams building on the Aave protocol. A formal proposal detailing the revenue-sharing mechanism is expected soon. This follows a governance vote where Kulechov purchased substantial AAVE tokens to exercise voting rights, which market analysts view as a centralization risk. The underlying data from Etherscan transaction records confirms the token accumulation occurred during the voting period.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

AAVE's price action shows consolidation near the $90 level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 indicating neutral momentum. The 50-day moving average at $88 provides immediate support, while resistance clusters around $95 based on Volume Profile analysis. A critical Order Block exists between $78 and $82, representing accumulated liquidity from previous distribution phases. Market structure suggests that a break above $95 could trigger a short squeeze toward $105, but failure to hold $85 may lead to a retest of lower support zones. The Bullish Invalidation level is set at $78, where the narrative would fundamentally break. The Bearish Invalidation level is $105, above which the revenue-sharing proposal could gain validation.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

For institutions, this revenue-sharing model could enhance AAVE's yield-generating properties, making it more attractive for treasury allocations. However, the centralization concerns highlighted by Kulechov's token accumulation may deter ESG-focused funds. For retail participants, the promise of external revenue streams may boost token demand, but the efficiency of distribution mechanisms remains unproven. The proposal's reliance on teams building on Aave rather than direct DAO funding introduces execution risk, as outlined in Ethereum's official governance documentation on decentralized autonomous organizations. If non-protocol ventures underperform, the shared revenue may not materialize, leaving token holders exposed to protocol-specific volatility.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter express skepticism. One noted, "Kulechov's large purchase during the vote creates a governance overhang that isn't resolved by revenue promises." Another commented, "External revenue sharing sounds positive, but without transparent on-chain distribution, it's just marketing." The prevailing sentiment questions whether this move addresses the core centralization issue or merely deflects from the failed subsidiary proposal.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If the formal proposal includes verifiable on-chain revenue distribution and AAVE holds above $85, price could rally to $105 as token utility expands. Successful RWA integrations could drive sustained demand, with Fibonacci extensions pointing to $120 over 6-12 months.

Bearish Case: If governance concerns persist and the proposal lacks technical detail, AAVE may break below $78, targeting $70. A failure to generate meaningful external revenue could lead to a Gamma Squeeze on downside options, exacerbating declines. Market-wide fear, as indicated by the 28/100 Fear & Greed Index, could amplify selling pressure.