85% of 2025 Cryptocurrencies Trade Below Initial Value: Daily Crypto Analysis

VADODARA, January 6, 2026 — A Memento Research report reveals that 85% of cryptocurrencies launched in 2025 now trade below their initial valuation, with median prices collapsing over 70%. This daily crypto analysis examines whether this represents a healthy market correction or signals deeper structural failures in token economics.

Market Context & Background

Market structure suggests this 85% failure rate contrasts sharply with previous cycles. According to Memento Research, pre-2021 bull markets saw new altcoins often surge on pure hype and excessive risk appetite. The current environment reflects what on-chain data indicates is a maturation phase, where unsustainable tokenomics face natural selection. This parallels the recent test of Bitcoin's $92,000 support amid shifting sentiment, suggesting correlated weakness across risk assets. The Federal Reserve's ongoing quantitative tightening, as documented on FederalReserve.gov, has drained liquidity from speculative corners of the market, creating what technical analysts term a persistent Fair Value Gap (FVG) for newly minted tokens.

What Happened?

According to the report from crypto research firm Memento Research, which tracked 118 Token Generation Events (TGEs) in 2025, 85% of these new cryptocurrencies are trading below their initial valuations. The firm found the median token price has fallen by more than 70% from its starting price. Memento Research attributed this performance to several factors: lack of genuine user adoption, unclear utility, uncertain regulatory environment, and imbalanced distribution structures. The firm concluded that marketing-driven hype is becoming obsolete, with surviving tokens valued based on disciplined strategies, clear incentive designs, and actual usage.

Technical Analysis & Price Action

Volume Profile analysis of these 118 tokens reveals consistent selling pressure post-TGE, with most failing to establish meaningful support zones. The 70% median decline creates what chartists identify as a massive Order Block of supply between initial valuation and current prices. For Bitcoin, the broader market proxy, critical support sits at the $90,000 psychological level, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2025 high. A break below this would invalidate the current range-bound structure. Bullish Invalidation for new altcoins is defined as failure to reclaim their Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) from launch. Bearish Invalidation occurs if Bitcoin loses the $88,500 level, which would trigger cascading liquidations in correlated altcoin markets.

By The Numbers

Why It Matters

This data matters because it exposes the disconnect between token issuance and sustainable value creation. For institutions, this reinforces the need for rigorous due diligence on tokenomics and real-world utility, as seen in VanEck's recent index launches focusing on stablecoins and tokenization. For retail, it highlights the asymmetric risk of participating in TGEs without understanding distribution schedules and vesting periods. The 85% failure rate suggests most new tokens function as liquidity grabs rather than functional assets, creating systemic vulnerability during market stress.

Community Sentiment

Market analysts on X/Twitter are divided. Bulls argue this is a healthy cleansing of "shitcoins" that will strengthen the ecosystem long-term. One quant trader noted, "The 70% median drawdown creates a massive FVG that only tokens with actual usage will fill." Bears point to the recent $109 million futures liquidation event as evidence of continued leverage unwinding in speculative assets. The prevailing sentiment aligns with the Fear index reading of 44, suggesting caution dominates.

Price Prediction / Future Outlook

Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds $90,000 and regulatory clarity improves, the 15% of tokens with genuine utility could experience a Gamma Squeeze as capital rotates from failed projects. Ethereum's upcoming Pectra upgrade, including EIP-7251 for staking, could provide a technical catalyst for quality altcoins. This would validate Memento's thesis that disciplined strategies prevail.

Bearish Case: If Bitcoin breaks $88,500, the 85% failure rate could expand to 90%+, with median declines exceeding 80%. Miner capitulation, as hinted in Riot Platforms' $200 million Bitcoin sale, could exacerbate selling pressure. This scenario would see most 2025 tokens become functionally worthless, representing a total write-down for early investors.